Geschrieben von Wen Yehao Herausgeber | Wu Xianzhi Seit Samsung 2019 sein erstes Faltdisplay-Handy für die Öffentlichkeit auf den Markt gebracht hat, hat die Entwicklung des Faltdisplays vier Jahre gedauert. Faltbildschirme waren in den letzten Jahren ein heißes Thema in der Mobiltelefonbranche und stellen keine neue Kategorie mehr auf dem Mobiltelefonmarkt dar. Gerade vor dem Hintergrund der insgesamt rückläufigen Smartphone-Verkäufe galten faltbare Bildschirme, die sich dem Trend widersetzten, einst als „Hoffnung des ganzen Dorfes“. Während in diesem Zeitraum die Zahl der Mobiltelefone mit faltbarem Bildschirm weiter zunahm, entwickelten sich auch deren Anwendungen und Kerne weiter. Zu Beginn des Jahres 2024 strömen jedoch weiterhin Nachrichten aus dem Technologiekontext und treffen immer wieder auf Faltbildschirme – Faltbildschirme mit steigendem Datenvolumen scheint nicht so glamourös zu sein, wie man erwarten könnte. Hinter „Rashomon“ steckt derzeit ein Zustand der Unsicherheit auf dem Paravent-Markt. Laut dem bekannten Analysten Ming-Chi Kuo haben die beiden großen Marken OPPO und vivo Anfang des Jahres beschlossen, ihre Pläne zur Einführung neuer Mobiltelefone mit vertikalem Klappbildschirm im Jahr 2024 auszusetzen. Gleichzeitig gibt es auch Medienberichte, dass diese großen chinesischen Smartphone-Hersteller planen, sich aus dem Markt für Faltbildschirme zurückzuziehen. Als die Nachricht bekannt wurde, war die Branche schockiert. Erst letztes Jahr haben Hersteller wie Blue and Green Factory, Huawei, Honor und Xiaomi, das fleißig Autos baut, einen harten Wettbewerb im Bereich Faltbildschirme gestartet und gemeinsam die Marktatmosphäre auf einen neuen Höhepunkt gebracht. Genau wie das eilige Abräumen des Tisches, bevor das Essen kalt ist, ist die plötzliche Veränderung zweifellos rätselhaft. Schließlich erfreuen sich die Verkaufszahlen von Mobiltelefonen mit faltbarem Bildschirm immer noch wachsender Beliebtheit. Ein iResearch-Bericht zeigt, dass der Verkauf von Faltbildschirmen in den letzten Jahren weiter gewachsen ist, einen rasanten Aufwärtstrend aufweist und von 2024 bis 2025 voraussichtlich weiterhin rasant wachsen wird. TrendForce zeigt, dass die weltweiten Auslieferungen von Faltbildschirmen im Jahr 2023 15,9 Millionen Einheiten erreichen werden, was einem Anstieg von 25 % gegenüber dem Vorjahr entspricht. Vor dem Hintergrund des anhaltenden Drucks auf den Markt ist das Wachstum des Faltbildschirms spurlos ist lobenswert.
1 Dennoch basiert dieses schnelle Wachstum teilweise auf einer niedrigen Ausgangsbasis und die Wachstumsrate scheint nicht nachhaltig zu sein. Marktprognosen von TrendForce zeigen, dass die Auslieferungen von Mobiltelefonen mit faltbarem Bildschirm im Jahr 2024 17,7 Millionen Einheiten erreichen könnten, was einem Anstieg von etwa 11 % gegenüber dem Vorjahr entspricht. Dies zeigt, dass der Anteil der Faltbildschirme am gesamten Smartphone-Markt von 1,4 % im Jahr 2023 nur geringfügig auf 1,5 % steigen wird.
- This seems to imply that the folding screen market is still facing challenges and is far from being a worry-free and good business. The reason is that the moment that mobile phone manufacturers are looking forward to, from quantitative change to qualitative change, has not yet arrived.
- The high cost of folding screens in the past has, on the one hand, created high prices for folding screens, and on the other hand, it has dragged down players’ gross profit margins. Regarding key components, such as hinges, the OPPO Find N’s hinge previously cost as high as 800 yuan, while the vivo X Fold’s cost more than 1,200 yuan, and it also faced the challenge of yield issues.
- Therefore, mobile phone manufacturers need to maximize the value of production itself. For example, driven by economies of scale, production efficiency will be improved, production costs will be reduced, and product prices will be more competitive, thereby entering a wider mainstream market. At the same time, the growth of industry scale will also drive the development of the entire supply chain, forming a virtuous cycle for the folding screen industry.
- However, the establishment of this story requires a major premise: widespread acceptance of folding screens by consumers. That is, if folding screens can continue to be affordable, the consumer market will eventually flock to folding screens.
- However, judging from the current market situation, there is a huge gap between the shipments of foldable screen mobile phones and traditional candy bar mobile phones, which limits the influence on the upstream supply chain, thereby delaying the process of cost reduction. In the long run, the slowdown in the growth rate of foldable screen mobile phones has cast a shadow on the market prospects.
- On the other hand, for mobile phone manufacturers, only by gaining a strong enough market share can they form the bargaining power of the industry chain. However, the "2024 China Folding Screen Mobile Phone Consumption Insight Report" shows that Huawei's market share has surged, and other manufacturers can not only share the other half of the cake, but also bear the pressure of Samsung's "invasion".
- An industry insider told Photon Planet that Samsung’s sales data in the domestic market actually only counts the National Bank phones. In fact, there are many mobile phone users who are interested in folding screens and are more inclined to buy the US version and the Hong Kong version. , Taiwan version machines are generally several thousand yuan cheaper, and the Hong Kong version (with invoice) supports mainland warranty. And this is also one of the most common reasons for Huawei and Samsung folding screen users at the somatosensory level.
- Perhaps due to various negative factors, Apple has not yet entered the folding screen field. Prior to this, the industry generally believed that Apple was waiting for an opportunity to enter the market to take advantage of its latecomer advantages - after the first movers spent real money to educate the market and gradually figured out a mature and standardized play style, the latecomers were often better able to Understand and respond to popular needs.
- However, according to foreign media reports, Apple’s vertical folding iPhone project is still being delayed; while the horizontal folding version is on the verge of shelving due to screen panel issues. This suggests that Apple's long-term foldable device project may go beyond traditional smartphones.
- Players who have not yet entered the game can watch the fire from the other side, but for mobile phone manufacturers that have been deeply involved in the field of folding screens for several years, "breaking away" is equivalent to giving up the sunk costs in the past few years - Honor CEO Zhao Ming said last year Said in September: "It is definitely not taken back now. It is still far from it. It is not 100 million. We invested 1 billion in making Honor Magic V2."
- Therefore, in the face of industry rumors, OPPO quickly refuted the rumors and said, "We are not interested in folding screen technology." There have been no changes in development.” Although vivo did not respond in time, its vivo X Fold3 series released in March and the hot sales after the product release have responded to industry doubts to a certain extent.
- Obviously, in the context of multiple delays in Apple’s folding screen products, it is difficult for domestic mobile phone manufacturers that have been laying out their products for many years to refuse to take a piece of the cake that has not been tainted by Apple.
- Folding screens that are constantly improving are unlikely to be what the public needs
- As mentioned above, the key to telling the story of folding screens is that folding screens that are constantly being upgraded are finally widely accepted by the mainstream market. However, if this continued improvement does not translate into substantial market shifts, the ghost story may become reality.
- At present, the folding screen models of major mobile phone manufacturers have gone through many iterations. In this process, various challenges that have accompanied folding screen mobile phones since their birth are being overcome one by one.
- In the early days, foldable screen mobile phones were frequently complained about in the Internet context due to screen creases, hinge structure and software adaptation issues. After many years, the self-developed hinges of domestic mobile phone manufacturers have become more mature, and software adaptation is on the right track. More and more users who purchase folding screens have found that the creases that they were most worried about before purchasing are not in actual use scenarios. can be completely ignored.
- Even the "original sins" of the device's thickness and weight have also been rolled back by players. In the past year, foldable screen mobile phones have tended to become thinner and lighter - the overall weight of new phones has gradually been reduced to no more than 250 grams. In terms of size, the Honor Magic V2 released last year reduced its thickness to 9.9 mm, making it Comparable to traditional candy bar mobile phones.
1. The price of folding screen mobile phones continues to decrease
- Between 2021 and 2023, the average price of domestic folding screen products has dropped from the 12,000 yuan price range to the 8,000 yuan price range.
- In 2023, the average price of new vivo and Honor phones will drop to the price range of 7,000 yuan.
- The popularization of folding screen mobile phones faces user demand issues
- Although technology and prices are decreasing, the real implementation and popularization of folding screen mobile phones still faces user demand issues.
- What really drives customers to spend money is often the experience of using a mobile phone that is different from traditional candy bar phones.
- The key to the implementation of foldable screen mobile phones
- is not the manufacturer’s patents, R&D costs or application scenarios, but to open up the market and create demand.
- Using foldable screens to eliminate straight screens has triggered a wider mobile phone replacement trend.
- Folding screen mobile phone innovation lacks obvious features
- Whether it folds outward, inward or vertically, or a curved screen concept phone, the innovation anchored by hardware seems to lack the obvious features to promote the replacement of smartphones. feature.
- Mainstream manufacturers are still focusing on solving pain points, rather than leveraging the imagination of "folding" itself.
- AI mobile phone has become the Sword of Damocles hanging over the head of the folding screen
- In 2024, "AI mobile phone" washes out the technological context.
- Smartphone + AI has been widely regarded as the core strategy of mobile phone manufacturers.
- AI can better represent the exploration of unknown needs, break the illusion of "excess performance", and then restore the glory of the machine industry.
- Homogenization of the folding screen track
- The differentiation once pursued will inevitably become a new homogeneity.
- At this stage, AI phones are regarded as exports, but this may not be the case.
- The smartphone battle never stops
- Whether it is a foldable screen phone or an AI phone, even if it fails to become the mainstream of the market in the end, mobile phone manufacturers will rush to the next battle non-stop.
- The battle of smartphones seems to have no end.
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