Will Bitcoin BTC be up or down at the end of 2024-2025?

Is Bitcoin BTC going up or down at the end of 2024-2025? "Friday, a thunder!" Overnight, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics also released non-farm employment data that greatly exceeded expectations, and unemployment data that slightly exceeded expectations. It was shocking, everyone was shocked. Detailed dismantling, friends who have not seen it can click on the link and open the 6.7 teaching chain internal reference to take a closer look. Faced with the expected impact brought by this data, BTC (Bitcoin) fluctuated sharply for a short period of time, and then began to dive. It has now fallen back below 70,000 dollars, nearly 69k.

Wall Street institutions have cooperated with the data and obediently postponed interest rate cut expectations to the end of November this year. Jiao Lian looked at BTC, which has been trading sideways since March, and couldn't help but fall into deep thought.

Look at the red box drawn by the teaching chain in the picture. Sideways consolidation channel. From March to November? How many months? 8 months. Amazing coincidence? I wonder if you remembered anything?

Let’s review the 1.9 article “Bitcoin’s Rise and Fall” and the 4.14 article “Cannonballs Sinking Positions”. You will see the same box that is about 8 months old. This is the picture below:

This picture shows a period of sideways movement experienced after the gold ETF was approved for listing. The length of the box is also more than 8 months.

But we all know that when the box finally broke through upward, gold started a magnificent five-year bull market.

However, yesterday’s 6.7 teaching chain internal reference also mentioned that the Bitfinex analyst team said that the current bull market of BTC will firmly turn bearish and end hastily by the end of the year.

So there is a huge difference here: at the end of 2024, when the Federal Reserve turns the ship and drives in the opposite direction, will BTC soar into the sky and start a mad bull in 2025, or will it fall into hell and enter the long road? Xiong Tu?

Bitfinex’s point of view, the teaching chain feels that the logic is not smooth enough. This has been dissected in the internal reference text and will not be described again.

The 2025 bull market and the 2026 bear market are the standard model of power law and the driving rhythm of the four-year halving cycle. However, in every cycle, some people will criticize this as too urgent.

In fact, this is also a major myth related to this unusual production halving cycle, that is, the 2024 halving debate: is the increase fading, or is it a super cycle?

After all, this round of "gold halving" of BTC in April 2024 has made BTC's "asset hardness" significantly surpass that of gold, becoming the hardest known asset on earth.

The $70,000 in March was given to me when the US spot ETF was approved for listing at the beginning of the year. The supply tightening effect brought about by the halving of production in April may not yet be reflected.

In the past, every halving would bring the bull market to its peak of happiness in about one and a half years. Then we will accurately use about a year to "deleverage" and completely clean up the market.

Precisely like a clock. L.

Every time, someone tries to prove that BTC’s four-year cycle is just a coincidence of macro external factors, rather than the effect of halving internal factors. But every time, all attempts to disrupt BTC’s endogenous clock and cycle rhythm have failed.

The mad bull from the end of 2020 to the beginning of 2021 ran over countless corpses of short positions. The eternal bull market of Sanjian Capital in early 2021 is now forgotten by no one. In the early summer of 2022, Jiaolian believed that BTC could recover despite the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction, but it did not start to come true until 2023, and the market had already changed.

BTC has been stubbornly bottoming out 1.5 years before the halving, peaking 1.5 years after the halving, rising in three years, falling in one year, and a four-year cycle. Will its clock-like rhythm be broken this time?

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