U.S. retail sales data in May was lower than expected, reinforcing the Fed's interest rate cut! Bitcoin bounces back after hitting $64,000

After the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest CPI data on June 12, it showed that inflation is continuing to cool. The U.S. Department of Commerce released May retail sales data last night (18th), known as the "American horror data":

• U.S. retail sales in May increased by 0.1% month-on-month, a low 0.3% higher than market expectations, and the previous value was revised down from 0% to -0.2%;

• Excluding May's core retail sales of automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services The growth rate was reported at 0.4%, slightly higher than market expectations of 0.3%. The previous value was revised down to -0.5%, the largest decline in a year.

Experts: The slowdown in U.S. consumption

is a result of higher-than-expected data and a sharply lowered previous value. Many experts said that this highlights the impact of U.S. consumption are facing greater financial pressure. Paul Ashworth, chief North American economist at Capital Economics, said in a report: As service consumption growth has slowed in recent months and consumer confidence has plummeted again, perhaps households are not as reluctant to raise interest rates as we first thought. sensitive.

Bloomberg economists Estelle Ou and Eliza Winger also said in a report: Considering that service spending has been the main engine of consumption growth, in a month including the Memorial Day holiday, , this decline suggests that consumers are feeling the impact of tight budgets.

The probability of an interest rate cut in September has increased to 61.7%

In view of this, although Fed officials earlier predicted through the interest rate dot plot that there will only be one interest rate cut this year, the retail sales data released last night once again Boosted market confidence. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market has once again increased its bets on an interest rate cut in September. It is estimated that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by one yard in September has reached 61.7%, and it is believed that the Fed will carry out a second interest rate cut in December. .

The market is betting on the Fed to cut interest rates in September at 61.7%

Fed official: Now is not the time to cut interest rates

However After the May retail sales data was released, Federal Reserve official Collins still came out to pour cold water on the market, saying that it was not the time to cut interest rates yet, and the Fed also needed to see more data on slowing inflation: Don’t be overwhelmed by the recent slowing inflation data. Unfortunately, it is too early to conclude that inflation will continue to compress towards the 2% target, and we should not overreact to the recent optimistic news. Overall, the Fed has made important progress in controlling inflation, but it is not the time to cut interest rates yet and more evidence of slowing inflation needs to be seen.

BTC rebounded after 64,000 pins

Back to the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin briefly rose after the release of retail sales data at 20:30 last night, but soon continued to fall. , the lowest pin was $64,051 near four o'clock this morning (19); however, it then started to rebound, and the current price at the time of writing was $65,171, with the decline narrowing to 0.89% in the past 24 hours.

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