Asia Bitcoin Supply Change Nears 2016 Peak, Mirroring Pre-Bull Run Trend

This meticulous metric aims at giving an approximate estimate for the year-over-year change in the share of the available Bitcoin supply to be held/traded in Asia.

Highlighting the year-over-year change in the proportion of the Bitcoin supply that is being held or traded in Asia, this metric provides valuable insights into the shifting dynamics of the digital asset market. According to the latest data from Glassnode, Bitcoin's year-over-year supply change in Asia has exhibited significant fluctuations, largely aligning with the price trends of the apex cryptocurrency.

Commencing in January, the supply change in Asia showcases a steep rise from around 4% to over 8% by mid-May, coinciding with Bitcoin's price surge to over $70,000. It briefly dipped during early June but has since regained the 8% level once again. This trend suggests a growing accumulation of Bitcoin within the Asian market, potentially driven by increased trading activity and investor interest in the region even during the recent downturn.

Historically, the Asian market has been known to influence Bitcoin's price trends. A long-term view of the chart reveals a pattern where periods of high supply change often coincide with major price movements. For example, during the 2017 bull run, a similar surge in supply change was observed, followed by the significant price appreciation. This recent data seems to be mirroring that historical trend, indicating a possible continuation of this pattern in 2024.

However, it is interesting to note that the 2020-2021 bull runs saw a deviation from this trend, with Asia selling into the top of the market, unlike in 2016, where they sold as Bitcoin ran up towards its 2017 peak. In fact, during 2021, the supply change turned negative for the first time since Glassnode records began. Moreover, while accumulation also occurred in late 2017, the supply change has never retaken its 10% peak from 2016.

Currently, the Asia supply change is closer to the top than it has been in over eight years. This ongoing increase in Bitcoin supply held in Asia reflects the region's enduring impact on the digital asset market. As investor sentiment and market conditions continue to evolve, the Asian market's influence on Bitcoin's supply and price movements will be a critical factor to watch.

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