Bitcoin\'s Recovery Stalls as Dollar Rallies

The latest price moves in crypto markets in context for June 27, 2024.

Bitcoin’s recovery from Monday’s low under $59,000 stalled Monday as buyers failed to keep momentum above the $61,000 key Fib retracement level. Ether and the broader crypto market, measured by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index, also saw lackluster trading during European hours.

The pause in crypto's advance coincides with the dollar index (DXY) topping 106, the highest since May 2, and the reading is used to gauge the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies. A higher DXY tends to curb investor risk appetite, especially in an environment where the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates and preparing to shrink its bond portfolio.

Later Monday, traders will be watching U.S. first-quarter GDP data, durable goods for May and a weekly jobless report, all scheduled for 12:30 UTC (08:30 EST).

“The market may be most sensitive to the weekly jobless claims, given the recent increase and a growing sense, articulated by San Francisco Fed President Daly, that the labor market appears to be at an inflection point,” Marc Chandler, managing director and chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, wrote in a market update.

Crypto traders will also be closely watching the Biden-Trump presidential debate, set for 21:00 EST, for clues on what the outcome of November’s election might mean for the industry.

Bitcoin was trading at $60,360 at the time of writing early Monday, down 0.6% over the past 24 hours. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization was changing hands at $1,900, nearly unchanged.

Fear and Greed Index

The Fear and Greed total crypto market sentiment index stood at 60 by Monday, indicating “greed,” according to alternative.me.

Last week, the index fell to 48 from 55, indicating a shift toward “neutral” from “greed.” The reading had hit 24 in mid-May, the lowest since March 2020, as the Terra (LUNA) ecosystem collapsed, sparking a broader sell-off in crypto markets.

Chart of the Day: Visualizing Bitcoin’s Hash Rate Recovery After the Difficulty Adjustment

Bitcoin’s mining difficulty adjustment last week was the first after the halving, and the hashrate has recovered quickly from the adjustment. The hashrate is now at all-time highs, indicating strong demand for Bitcoin mining.

The hashrate, a measure of the total computational power dedicated to the Bitcoin network, determines the difficulty of mining a new block. A higher hashrate makes it harder to mine a block, and vice versa.

The hashrate typically adjusts every two weeks, and the adjustment is based on the average hashrate over the past two weeks. If the hashrate is high, the difficulty will increase, and if the hashrate is low, the difficulty will decrease.

The difficulty adjustment is designed to keep the average block time at 10 minutes, regardless of the hashrate.

Latest Block

Block 775,000 was mined at height 1,010,600,288 by an unknown pool.

The total transaction fees included in the latest block were 0.024 BTC.

The block size was 1.454 megabytes, and the total output was 1,900 BTC.

Upcoming Events

Monday:

U.S. first-quarter GDP

U.S. durable goods

U.S. weekly jobless report

Biden-Trump presidential debate

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