Spot Ethereum ETFs May Launch as Soon as July 2, Targeting $35B in AUM

Spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are expected to launch soon in the United States. Bloomberg analysts have chalked in July 2

The launch of spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States is expected to have a significant impact on the price of ETH, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan.

In a post on platform X, the CIO said he believes the money coming into these funds will be substantial over the following months.

Hougan expects investor allocations to BTC and ETH exchange-traded products (ETPs) to align with their market caps: BTC holds 74% of the market at US$1,266bn (AU$1,905bn), while ETH comprises 26% at US$432bn (AU$650bn).

“3/ U.S. investors have $56 billion invested in spot Bitcoin ETPs. I suspect this will reach $100 billion by the end of 2025, as these ETFs mature and are approved on platforms like Morgan Stanley. By this logic, spot Ethereum ETPs will need $35 billion in AUM to reach parity,” wrote Hougan.

Besides considering factors like market cap comparisons between BTC and ETH, Hougan thinks investment in Bitcoin ETPs, and the structure of international crypto ETP markets will drive adoption.

His projection is based on the current investment distribution, expected growth in Bitcoin ETPs, and the conversion of Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust. Hougan adjusts his estimates considering the absence of a staking-related “carry trade” in Ethereum, similar to what exists for Bitcoin, leading to a conservative inflow estimate for Ethereum ETPs.

ETF Launch to Drive Short-Term ETH Price: Analysts

Meanwhile, analysts at crypto exchange BloFin believe that the ETF launch will have severe short-term ramifications for the price of Ether as investors shift their focus from Bitcoin to ETH.

In a note shared with CryptoSlate, citing “options skewness, portfolio adjustments, and whale holdings”, the analysts said ETH is expected to see price increases.

BloFin’s analysis reveals a recent shift in investor sentiment, now favouring Ethereum over Bitcoin in the short term, driven by Ethereum’s potential for higher returns in a lower interest rate environment and the expected approval of these spot Ethereum ETFs.

Additionally, on-chain data indicates that ETH whales are holding onto their assets, further boosting Ethereum’s bullish outlook relative to Bitcoin.

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