Matrixport Investment Research: The market has entered the summer consolidation stage, and prudent investment is the best policy

Matrixport Research Institute’s latest research shows that the recent focus is:
ETH ETF may be approved next week, and the net inflow of traditional funds on the first day may be lower than expected
BTC’s historical trend in the third quarter is weak, it is recommended to pay attention to option products
In addition to macro data, the Biden-Trump debate has attracted much attention from investors
ETH ETF is restricted by ETH awareness and US public holidays. The net inflow of traditional funds on the first day may be lower than expected. The SEC is likely to approve it in the next few days. ETH ETF. Most likely early next week, the ETFs could then be launched a few days later. The ETH ETF's capital size is expected to reach approximately 20% of the BTC ETF's size. This ratio is roughly consistent with the size of ETH futures relative to BTC futures, the size of ETH futures-based ETFs relative to BTC futures-based ETFs, and the market cap ratio of ETH and BTC.
Therefore, as the BTC ETF has attracted cumulative net inflows of $14 billion since January 2024, it is expected that the ETH ETF may reach $2.8 billion in assets under management in the first five months.
Most non-cryptocurrency investors may need more time to understand ETH, especially since it does not have a fixed supply, which may make Wall Street investors hesitant. ETH and its use cases are more complex to understand than Bitcoin, which may also lead to initial hesitation among TradeFi investors. Finally, since July 4th is a public holiday in the United States, many investors may be away for the long weekend. If the ETH ETF launches next week, it could cause investors to be slightly disappointed in their first-day capital commitments.
The historical price trend of BTC in the third quarter is relatively calm. It may be a good idea to focus on option products. From a historical perspective, BTC has entered the usually calm third quarter. At this time, the return rate of BTC in the next three months is usually only 5 %about. Seasonally, the fourth quarter is usually the strongest season for the market, while the third quarter (July, August, September) is weaker, especially in August and September. However, when the market performs poorly in June (which has happened five times in the past), market performance generally improves in July. June of this year appears to be no exception, manifesting itself as a negative return month for the BTC market. According to independent statistics, over the past 13 years, BTC’s average return in July was more than 12%.
While BTC’s average 30-day realized volatility over the past five years has been 60%, it is currently only 30%. Investors can consider using option products instead of directly facing possible market risks.
PCE data will be released soon, and the debate between Biden and Trump has attracted investors' attention. On the evening of the 28th, PCE data will be released soon. If price pressure eases, it may provide the basis for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year. At the same time, the market is paying close attention to the debate between Biden and Trump. As of 16:30 on June 28, the probability of Trump winning the election in the prediction market has risen to 63%, with a clear lead. The market still believes that Trump’s election will have a positive impact on the encryption market.
Some of the above opinions come from Matrix on Target, contact us to get the full report of Matrix on Target.
Disclaimer: The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and unstable. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of individual circumstances and consultation with a financial professional. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.

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