Bitcoin (BTC) Could Be in for a Rocky Start This Month as Traders Look to Divine U.S. Economic Activity

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Bitcoin price predictions vary widely for July as traders assess U.S. economic activity, inflation, and stock market performance.

Bitcoin (BTC) opened the new month on a positive note, rising above the $63,000 level on Sunday after a turbulent week that saw the world’s largest cryptocurrency hit a new all-time high and then lose some of its gains.

As the first half of 2024 draws to a close, traders are assessing the economic climate and trying to predict Bitcoin’s next move. Here's what some analysts are saying about BTC price in July.

Bitcoin price rose on Sunday after a turbulent week. Image: DECRYPT / COIN360.

Bitcoin price predictions for July: What to expect from BTC in H2 2024

After posting its highest level since March 13 on Saturday, Bitcoin began to edge higher again on Sunday, reaching a peak of $63,683.63 at around 23:34 EST, according to CoinGecko data.

The gains came after U.S. markets closed the week in the green on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.5%, the S&P 500 gaining 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite edging up 0.1%.

Bitcoin and other digital assets have shown a close correlation with the stock market, especially the tech-heavy Nasdaq, throughout 2024.

Meanwhile, new data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an annual rate of 1.4% in the first quarter of 2024, according to the third estimate.

The figures, released on Thursday, contrasted sharply with last year’s fourth-quarter results, which showed U.S. economic activity had increased by 3.4%.

The bureau's data also showed the personal consumption expenditures index—a key inflation indicator—fell to a 2.6% year-over-year increase in May, compared to April's 2.7% rise.

“This slowdown suggests potential economic cooling,” Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at Bitfinex, told Decrypt. “Looking ahead to July, market participants should watch for a comeback in volatility as additional regulatory developments and macroeconomic policies will play a crucial role.”

In cryptocurrencies, this may increase interest in Bitcoin and other digital assets as alternative investments if traditional markets show signs of weakening, according to Kooner.

A slowing economy could also spur the U.S. Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates later this year. The Fed has maintained high rates in a bid to manage price stability and prevent economic overheating.

Cheaper borrowing at lower rates could flow to risk assets, including Bitcoin, some analysts have said.

“Historical trends indicate that during economic slowdowns, investors often turn to Bitcoin as a store of value,” Kooner added.

Further clues on Fed policy are expected at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for July 30-31. Futures traders, for their part, are pricing in two rate cuts, expected sometime in the final quarter of this year.

While some are anticipating heightened volatility for July, others remain skeptical.

“July will be a period of consolidation and low volatility. Bitcoin is looking for the next major catalyst for a move up. None is on the horizon, but this is expected to change as we near the U.S. elections,” Pratik Kala, senior digital asset investment analyst at crypto fund manager DigitalX, told Decrypt.

“Seasonality matters, too. The third quarter is seen as a period of low volatility as most key U.S. decision-makers are typically on holiday.”

Bitcoin price predictions 2024: H2 outlook after record highs in Q1

Bitcoin began 2024 with a bang, hitting new all-time highs in March and continuing to post strong gains throughout the first half of the year.

After crossing the $40,000 threshold for the first time in January, BTC went on to hit new record highs of $53,483.88 on March 6, $59,465.66 on March 13, and $62,883.07 on March 28.

Bitcoin price hit a new all-time high on March 28. Image: DECRYPT / COIN360.

A bullish performance by the U.S. stock market and increasing institutional interest in digital assets both contributed to Bitcoin’s strong first-quarter performance.

However, Bitcoin began to lose steam in April as the tech-heavy Nasdaq stock index also showed signs of slowing down.

Bitcoin fell below the key psychological level of $50,000 on April 18 and continued to trade in a tight range throughout the rest of the

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