BTC regained $63,000, and multiple data suggested that it may have hit the bottom

The crypto market started the second half of the year in higher mode on Monday. The latest U.S. manufacturing activity data showed that the U.S. manufacturing PMI fell further into contraction territory in June, hitting a four-month low, boosting investor hopes that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in September as the economy appears to show weakness sign. Investors are still awaiting the June jobs report due out on Friday, which could provide more support for a rate cut if it shows signs of further cooling in the labor market. BitTweet data shows that Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded above the support level of $62,800 in early trading and hit a daily high of $63,820 after midday. As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $63,263, with a 24-hour increase of 2 %.

Top 200 altcoins by market cap

1. LayerZero (LZO): up 15.1%, trading at $3.83
2. Bonk (BONK): up 14.1%
3. Ethereum Name Service (ENS): up 11.7%

Top 200 altcoins by market capitalization

1. Arkham (ARKM): down 8.7%
2. Convex Finance (CVX): down 7.1%
3. io.net (IO): down 4.4%

The overall market value of cryptocurrency

The current overall market value of cryptocurrency is US$2.32 trillion, and Bitcoin’s market share is 53.5%.

U.S. stock indexes

As of the end of the day, the S&P Index, Dow Jones Index and Nasdaq Index all closed higher, up 0.27%, 0.13% and 0.83% respectively.

Bitcoin Price

CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin’s premium index on Coinbase has fallen to its lowest level since the FTX crash. Similar values ​​for November 2022 and August 2023 both coincide with an imminent price bottom and subsequent rebound.

1. David Lawant, director of research at FalconX, an institutional cryptocurrency trading platform, posted on the X platform: “The darkness before dawn is always the darkest. The last time Coinbase premium was so low was from October 2023 to 2024 A few months before the massive rally in March.”

According to data from analytics firm
2. CryptoQuant, the indicator was chronically negative for most of June and May, mirroring the market downturn in August and September last year. On Friday, the metric fell to nearly -0.19, its lowest value since crypto exchange FTX crashed in November 2022.
The negative value in early November 2022 coincided with
3. BTC’s bear market low below $16,000, before the price surged to nearly $25,000 in February. That’s an increase of more than 50%.
The premium bottom in August 2023 occurred just weeks before
4. Bitcoin hit a local bottom around $25,000. Subsequently, BTC has been range-bound, and from October to January, driven by expectations of the US Bitcoin ETF, the price of BTC first doubled and then hit a record high.
5. Lawant said: “Recently at least, the Coinbase premium has become a reliable, confirming and even forward-looking indicator of overall market trends, underscoring the significant influence of the U.S. market in determining market price formation. There are signs that "The next six to 12 months will be exciting, but also potentially volatile."
Given that several upcoming catalysts are centered around US markets — such as
6. ETF flows, US monetary policy and the presidential election, he said he expects this trend to continue.

Tailwind and headwind

7. Despite the rebound, Bitfinex analysts pointed out that Bitcoin failed to maintain the positive tone it started the year with, with specific factors further creating headwinds for digital asset prices in recent weeks, ending the first half on a sluggish note.
8. BTC also decoupled from U.S. stocks in June as long-term holders resumed selling while oversupply took its toll on the market.
9. Analysts say: “The policy environment has led to lower volatility, and Bitcoin prices have suffered as a result. BTC has struggled to maintain upward momentum, decoupling from U.S. stocks, and the long-term Bitcoin holding that paused the sell-off in early May Investors are back. While the reduced selling by mining companies suggests some stabilization, continued cashing out by long-term holders means the near-term outlook is fragile. "At the same time, oversupply continues to weigh on the market," analysts said. ,
Mt. Gox
10. Depositors and the German Federal Criminal Police Bundeskriminalamt may be selling Bitcoin, potential selling pressure exists.” The consumer spending index was unchanged in May, suggesting inflation is now only slightly above the Fed's 2% target." They said: "There are hopes that this may prompt a rate cut in September, the third estimate of US first-quarter GDP. The case for such action is bolstered by data showing that despite the slight increase, economic fundamentals remain weak. Additionally, consumer confidence is declining and a lower share of consumers plan to buy a home due to high mortgage rates and limited supply. Hopefully a rate cut comes soon.”
11. Back to the direct impact on Bitcoin prices, Bitfinex analysts say that while “profits are expected in a bull market, the scale of recent selling by long-term holders” is causing “concerns.” .
12. They warned: “If long-term holders continue to profit at current levels (which we believe is unlikely in the longer term), this could put downward pressure on Bitcoin prices in the short term, potentially Extend the current decline and impact the bull market in the medium term.”
13. While many analysts have described Bitcoin’s sideways price action over the past four months as “boring,” Ki, founder and CEO of crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant. Young Ju said on the X platform that periods of less market volatility are the periods when giant whales accumulate the most, and Bitcoin is still in a bull market cycle.

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