Bitcoin market analysis: Bitcoin has been trading sideways for 4 months, why $73,000 is not the top of the cycle

Bitcoin has been trading sideways for 4 months. Why is $73,000 not the top of the cycle? Bitcoin has been hovering in the $60,000-$70,000 range for nearly 4 months. So can Bitcoin still rise? Why is $73,000 not the top of the cycle? Today, the editor of this site will share with you the analysis of Bitcoin market trends. Friends who need it can take a look!

While this is frustrating, it’s actually not uncommon. Usually after a halving event, we see the market enter a period of downturn. If we look back at the 2016 and 2020 halving cycles, we can see similar consolidation phases before entering the so-called “banana zone”, the final parabolic rise phase.

However, we cannot just be satisfied with "that's how things have been in the past", but should try to analyze the current market conditions in order to learn from them and even profit from them.

"What about other cryptocurrencies? What about airdrops? What about ETH ETF?"

These issues will be discussed in future articles, this article mainly focuses on Bitcoin.

On the surface, if trying to answer why there is a large supply around $70,000, the simplest and most obvious answer may be:

• A lot of money came in early before the halving event;
• Miner income halved, Forced Selling;
• US Tax Factors;

We could list countless reasons, but it makes more sense to look at some objective indicators.

Market to Realized Value (MVRV)

This is the ratio between Bitcoin’s weighted average purchase price (i.e. the price at the time of last move) and the current market price. Simply put, this reflects Bitcoin’s unrealized profits.

MVRV peaked in March at a ratio of 2.75, meaning that when Bitcoin was priced at $73,100, the average purchase price was $26,580. While this metric is not entirely accurate (for example, a centralized exchange may not move coins but simply update database entries), it usually rises in tandem with market price peaks. At some point, people need to take profits, right?

Another interesting metric is the change in long-term holder positions, defined as wallets holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days. Tops usually form when these holders complete selling, while bottoms form when they begin buying. A sharp increase in selling is evident from the end of January to the end of March. What’s more, they also started buying again.

Finally, considering that Bitcoin is priced in USD, it is also crucial to watch the USD supply. How much “money” is flowing in the market? More importantly, is this number increasing or decreasing? How is the speed? Is it accelerating or decelerating?

I think this chart says it all - the growth rate of global M2 (an important factor in global liquidity) has slowed down significantly since late March/early April. Markets are forward-looking and if the outlook for M2 slows, markets will expect USD to strengthen relative to cryptocurrencies (all else being equal).

In addition to this, there are many other signals:

Coinbase jumped 106 spots in the rankings in one day (they got a lot of app downloads).

Bitcoin ETF inflows peaked at $1.045 billion before slowing down sharply.

Lots of very positive regulatory news but increasingly weak price follow-through.

矿工在减半后的低迷期积极抛售

在顶部（包括局部顶部）卖出总是很难，因为它们往往持续的时间比我们预期的更长（或更短），而情绪使我们难以保持客观。此外，市场也会左右我们，我们在突破初期会很谨慎，然后会羡慕那些赚得比我们多的人（购买 memes，增加杠杆），最后试图复制并“追赶”到最后。

好消息是，我不认为这是周期顶部（如果在 ETF 等因素下，周期顶部的概念仍然存在的话）。正如我在开头提到的，我认为这在减半后的几周和几个月内是相当典型的。每个周期显然不同，但我认为基本原则大致相同：

• 系统中只能有这么多未实现利润；
• 长期持有者的抛售形成顶部（购买形成底部）；
• 美元供应量的增减速度；

这些因素将根据参与者的定位以不同方式表现出来。

我认为这不太可能是周期顶部。虽然很难确切说出我们何时会再次上涨，但我认为我们离打破这个区间的结束要比一开始要更近了（希望是向上突破）。

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