Is the bottom or the mountainside after a big drop? The long and short forces staged a tug of war

7 月 5 日，加密市场再度迎来大跌，BTC 一度跌破 53500 美元。截止撰文，BTC 上涨至 58000 美元。但目前是否是最佳抄底时刻，只有市场背后的那只手知道。

同样每当加密行情深度回调之时，市场上总是产生多空分歧，繁多地噪声影响投资判断。但本次下跌情形与以往最大的差异在于比特币和山寨币之间的。

去年 10 月熊尾牛初，BTC 在 25000 美元浮动，此后一路上涨至 73777 美元。眼下 BTC 跌幅约为 27.5%，但绝大多数山寨币却已抹去涨幅、跌至本轮行情起点，Mechanism Capital 联创甚至表示超 98% 山寨币在本周期已见顶。总之山寨币已经难以再承受下跌之重，但目前加密市场上多空双方依然看法不一、各有依据。

1. Bullishness and potential benefits:

• Matrixport: It is expected that the US SEC may approve a spot Ethereum ETF this week, and the price of ETH may rebound. Due to the July 4 holiday, the SEC may delay its decision until the week of July 8. If the SEC takes action this week, ETH price could rebound.
• Block founder Jack Dorsey: BTC may replace the US dollar, and BTC is expected to reach $1 million. Over time, people will gradually realize the value and power of BTC, and BTC has the potential to replace the US dollar. It will take some time for people to realize the value of this system.
• Blockstream CEO: There have been 6 30% declines in the historical bull market, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Because the decline this time is about 26%, in fact, the recent decline is not that large.
• Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors: Expects BTC to rise to $150,000 after Mt.Gox distribution is completed. One of the biggest negatives will disappear in July, which I think is one reason to expect a sharp rebound in the second half of the year.
• 10x Research: Bitcoin seems to be oversold in the short term and may rebound. Bitcoin’s downside target of $55,000 has been reached, with macroeconomic upside expected next week. Additionally, the U.S. SEC may approve an Ethereum ETF, which could spark positive momentum in the short term. However, it is not a significant buying opportunity in the medium term.
• GSR Lianchuang: Bitcoin still has enough time to reach new highs before the end of the year. The amount to be paid by (Mt. Gox) is expected to become "a burden in the third quarter" on the market, "almost as much as the number of Bitcoins mined in the first year after the halving. However, once digested, (Bitcoin Price) still has enough time to hit another all-time high before the end of the year.
• Analyst: Bitcoin’s daily RSI indicator shows a clear bullish divergence signal. Encouraging signals are seen from the Bitcoin Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily time frame, including bullish divergence.
• Founder of CryptoQuant: This Bitcoin cycle is different, and there are still many institutional capitals waiting to enter. This cycle is special and comes from different sources of funds. Spot Bitcoin ETFs currently account for a quarter of the total spot trading volume, which means that new funds entering the market are more mature than ever before. I believe there will be more mature ones in the future. funds. Mature funds usually have diamond hands, and there are still many institutional capitals waiting to enter this field, and channels are now open for them.
• CryptoQuant Analyst: Bitcoin miner capitulation indicator is close to the bottom after FTX crash, or may indicate a market bottom. Specifically, the Bitcoin miner capitulation indicator is close to market bottom levels following the 2022 FTX crash, potentially signaling a bottom for the BTC market. Miner capitulation refers to some miners reducing operations or selling mined BTC to make ends meet or hedge risks.
• This is similar to what happened in late 2022 when BTC price bottomed at $15,500, when BTC rose over 300% over the next 15 months.
• Rekt Capital: The longer Bitcoin consolidates after the halving, the better the current cycle will resynchronize with the traditional halving cycle.

Pros:

• CryptoQuan: The selling pressure of Bitcoin miners is weakening and may form an upward momentum if absorbed.
• Crypto analyst Ash Crypto: FTX’s repayment to creditors will be the biggest catalyst for cryptocurrency price increases.
• People are worried about the MT.GOX plunge and other negative factors, but some factors will push the crypto market to new highs, such as FTX’s plan to distribute more than $16 billion to its creditors, August 16th is the FTX customer voting deadline, and October 7th Mr Justice Dorsey makes the decision on planning approval.
• If approved by the court, FTX will repay creditors within two months, which according to the schedule will occur between Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, which is consistent with other positive factors such as interest rate cuts, Financial Accounting Standards Board accounting Rule implementation and the results of the US election) are perfectly matched, and a huge amount of $16 billion will enter the cryptocurrency market and become the biggest catalyst for price increases.
• Financial Times: Former President Trump may return to the White House, which will trigger a huge surge in the value of Bitcoin. The concept of a “Trump trade” has become increasingly popular among cryptocurrency traders due to the former president’s “perceived pro-crypto stance and policies.” Analysts believe that a Trump victory could cause Bitcoin to surge, potentially setting another all-time high in August and reaching $100,000 on Election Day.
• Other positive news include: Japanese listed company Metaplanet has purchased BTC multiple times, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has accumulated a net inflow of US$238.4 million in the first week of July, the founder of Dell may purchase a large amount of Bitcoin, and Sony plans to restart the acquired cryptocurrency Exchange Whalefin.

2. Bearishness and potential negatives:

• Gold advocate Peter Schiff: The BTC bear market still has a long way to go, and ETH may fall to $1,500. It is currently "at a critical support level," and if support falters, prices could fall significantly.
• So far, there are no signs of panic. Bitcoin may need to fall significantly before they finally capitulate. This could happen as early as next week, especially after another massive sell-off this weekend.
• Andrew Kang: Over 98% of altcoins have peaked in this cycle, and buying the bottom prematurely is a common investment mistake. The most common mistake in the crypto market is buying too soon when the trend changes from up to down. Adjustments after the collapse of large market structures are often deeper and longer than expected. Bitcoin is in the transition stage to a supercyclical asset, combining the characteristics of previous cycles and mature macro assets. eToro Analyst: BTC’s trend will deteriorate further in the next few days, and a rising catalyst event will be needed for a market reversal. The current selling activity is clearly unnerving investors, which often leads to more selling. Prices will be soft in the short term until the market receives a catalyst that drives prices higher.
• Analyst Axel Adler Jr: Unrealized profit indicator on Bitcoin chain could trigger further selling. The average investor currently has 84% ​​unrealized profits from their Bitcoin investment. The price is close to the $52,200 average (PR Bands) – this would reduce unrealized profits by approximately 14%, and investors may choose to take profits out of fear of further price declines.
• Material Indicators: Bitcoin faces technical resistance at the 200-day moving average, if Bitcoin fails to do so, be prepared for the market to test support in the $50,000 to $53,000 range.
• Alicharts data: Capital continues to exit the crypto market, falling from more than $110 billion in March to $20 billion today.

Negative events:

• Binance: Bitcoin miners hit the longest consecutive period of net selling since 2017.
• Lookonchain: The German government has transferred a total of 13,466 BTC since June 19 and still holds 39,826 BTC (July 7).

Mt.Gox compensation lasted for about two months, the date of the FTX judgment has not been determined, supervision is unclear, large tokens of crypto projects are unlocked, etc.

Summary

As far as the current judgment of the market outlook in the encryption market is concerned, bullish voices still dominate. The main reasons behind this are that negative factors such as the government, ETF, miner selling, and Mt. Gox compensation have been released. In the second half of the year, there are many expected positive factors, such as interest rate cuts, general elections, FTX debt repayments, the passage of Ethereum ETF, etc., especially The crypto bull market cycle theory has made many investors optimistic about the future market.

However, investors still need to pay attention to the fact that the crypto market is extremely risky and is easily affected by negative factors. They must keep their principal safe at all times.

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