The Bitcoin bull market, the hardest to make money in history, is about to end?

Produced by | Vernacular Blockchain

Recently, the crypto market has been unpredictable. Many people have begun to think that this is a strange bull market where no one makes any money. Many people even complain that this is the most difficult Bitcoin bull market in history. ! So people who have always believed in "when the market is good, everything looks like the future, but when the market is bad, every project looks like a mess" begins to doubt life and the value of the entire encryption industry, thinking that the bull market is the end of the world. It’s coming to an end...

01. Making money in the bull market is inherently difficult

Although this bull market is strange, after so many rounds of bull markets, it should have become normal. This is the case in the previous article "The logic of the Bitcoin bull market has quietly changed. Many people still can’t make money? 》There has been comparative analysis for a long time. In fact, it is not that this bull market does not make money, but that it is not easy to make money in every bull market. You must know that most of the people who made money in the past few rounds did not get on the bus only in the bull market. Those who came in only after smelling the "making money" opportunity in the bull market will only know later that what others make is the money they provide.

Essentially, those who can survive through bulls and bears without any damage are the real winners. Over the years of the ups and downs of the Bitcoin and crypto markets, many famous gold diggers have come, including the Wall Street genius trader SBF, Do Kwon, known as the "Korean Musk", and others, who have all set their sights on the crypto market. The lessons learned are simple. In addition to eagerness for quick success and lack of respect for risks, the most important point is the mistake of "encryption values".

For a long time, many traders, including those represented by SBF, have claimed to be "smart people". Entering the crypto market may not be because they recognize the value brought by Bitcoin and crypto assets, but because they believe that "there are many fools taking over". The idea of ​​reselling "air" Bitcoins to fools at a low price was very popular in this market. But what they didn't expect was that in this highly free market, they would never be able to escape the fate of "big fish eating small fish". In any industry, anyone who does not pursue the correct values ​​of the industry, does not recognize the value of the industry, and enters with the mentality of "cutting leeks" is destined to be unable to do this career well. Even if he tastes the benefits at the beginning, he will soon be dismissed. The market bites back.

Perhaps many people have forgotten the original intention of Bitcoin and the encryption industry, and the final result of distorted values ​​may be serious errors in judgment.

02. What went wrong with the value project?

In this bull market, the obvious feature is the "value projects" that many VCs are enthusiastic about. The old crypto value projects that have been under construction in the crypto market include Ethereum, Layer2, Metaverse, DeFi, etc. Many people thought that the bull market would The skyrocketing project does not seem to be recognized by the market. Instead, people seem to be more willing to participate in inscriptions and memes. This has to make people reflect on what went wrong with the "crypto value project" that has been built for so many years?

In fact, we can’t blame the market for not taking over value projects at all, but there is something really wrong with the “value projects”! Recently, we have observed that the Ethereum GAS price has even dropped to 1. Some Layer 2, Metaverse, DeFI projects, and newly listed VC projects that do not have much daily activity have not even scratched the surface, but their market values ​​are often as high as hundreds of millions or tens of millions. 100 million. With such poor data and such a high market value, it gives people a sense of an extremely overvalued bubble. Of course, no one will be willing to take over stupidly. It is better to directly lower the market value of the Meme and reject all kinds of PUA.

For a long time, many people have paid too much attention to the surface and ignored the underlying reasons. In fact, it is not that value projects have no value. The valuation of many value projects is not only measured by active users, because it carries billions of dollars behind it. With tens of billions of TVL, the amount of funds cannot be ignored.

Of course, the most important point is that the popular "wool-raising" movement in recent years has not only spawned a large number of fake users, but also made it difficult for new VC projects to be valued and to calm down to work, and has developed into a problem for the entire Web3 industry. , a large number of fake traffic and users have kidnapped these projects to some extent. There are even some organizations that take advantage of the bad market trends to make a high degree of customization in order to make profits: to defraud VCs to take over the deal, to build a superficial star team, and to customize "value projects" for people who "roll wool". No one cares about technology or whether to solve real problems. Needs and problems. It is conceivable that such VC projects with abnormal value orientation will be harvested as soon as they are launched and end miserably.

Since then, people have discovered that the old and new "value projects" have been mixed with impurities. A piece of mouse droppings can ruin a pot of porridge, not to mention that this is a common phenomenon... So since you can't tell whether it has value, then don't take it. It became the best strategy.

Of course, even so, we cannot completely deny most projects that maintain the original intention of cryptographic value. Bitcoin brings transparency and self-custody of assets, realizing the sanctity of personal property, and Ethereum includes smart contract platforms such as Layer2. It has brought a "trusted" operating environment for Internet applications and pushed the Internet from online to onchain... After baptism, I believe they can still stand firm in the continuous self-correction of the encryption market.

03. The logic of the bull market has not changed.

The logic of the bull market has not changed. For a long time, most of the copycats are just the receivers of the value overflow after Bitcoin surges. When the price of Bitcoin enters the high range, it is difficult to rush up. People find that many small cottages with new narratives and low market capitalization seem to be "value depressions", so driven by FOMO emotions, some funds choose to rush towards these. There are "small reservoirs" of altcoins in the surrounding area. Because the pool is small, only a small amount of capital is needed to achieve an increase of several times or dozens of times, so people slowly realized the logic of this bull market.

But this year, in addition to new and old copycats of various concepts, Meme projects are in full bloom. The market has discovered that the value of FOMO emotions can also be collected in containers. Since FOMO emotions can be directly loaded into Meme, why waste energy on those Where to go among the "copycat traps" that are filled with all kinds of "rat droppings" and prepared for retail investors everywhere?

Since then, Meme has directly intercepted the funds that should have flowed to the copycats. The logic of the bull market has changed, but it has not changed. It is just that there is an extra circle of Meme pools next to the copycat pools to take over the funds that overflow from Bitcoin. .

04. Is the cow gone? Most people may have lost their way

Many people are entangled and conflicted about whether the bull market is gone, and whether there are copycat cattle, etc., but what I want to say is, since we have known it for a long time, right Most people say: "A bull market does not necessarily mean making money, and a bear market does not necessarily mean losing money." If this is the case, why do you still care so much about whether it is bullish or not?

Learning from history, let’s take a look at the trend chart of gold over the past 100 years. You will find that Bitcoin, the digital gold, and gold have many similarities in the trend charts, except for some similar attributes:

1) If the time line is lengthened, the early price trend, regardless of whether it is bull or bear, almost becomes a straight line

2) Prices have ups and downs, have cycles, and always maintain a long-term spiral upward channel

It is so simple to draw a There is a high probability that the conclusion is correct. Bitcoin is the same as gold. In 100 years, the best long-term strategy will always be to allocate on dips.

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05, Summary

Recent factors such as the Mentougou debt liquidation and government sell-off have had a huge negative impact on the market, but the good side is that these "Sword of Damos" hanging on the crypto market have also disappeared. If we extend the timeline, the "cow" will always be there, so there is no need to worry at all. We just need to quietly embrace the original intention of encryption and patiently welcome the new era.

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