Is Bitcoin expected to rebound above $60,000? Analysts say gains may be short-lived

This site (120BTC.coM): The cryptocurrency market fluctuated and rose today (10th), temporarily bidding farewell to last week's heavy losses, but Bitcoin has "challenged the $58,000 level four times" since the early morning and has failed to stand firm. , analysts pointed out that although it is expected to return to $60,000, this wave of gains may only be short-lived.

There are downside risks to the mid-term trend

Markus Thielen, founder of cryptocurrency research company 10x Research, said that although Bitcoin may rise slowly and reach $60,000, this wave of gains may be short-lived and there is still a certain degree of uncertainty in the mid-term trend. Downside risks. He said:

From the perspective of technical analysis, the "$55,000 to $56,000 range" is forming a foundation. However, given the medium-term technical damage, we expect this to be only a short-term tactical rebound.

Markus Thielen added: "We expect that Bitcoin may rebound to close to $60,000 and then fall again until it breaks through the $50,000 range, which will create a complex trading environment."

Seasonal trend impact

Vetle Lunde, senior analyst at K33 Research, pointed out that "seasonal trends" are also quite detrimental to Bitcoin, because the third quarter of each year has historically been the period of weakest returns. This weak seasonal trend overlaps with selling pressure from German authorities selling confiscated assets and Mt. Gox compensation, he said.

According to estimates from K33 Research, the market will need to absorb selling pressure from German authorities and Mt. Gox customers in the summer, with the scale estimated to be 75,000 to 118,000 Bitcoins, which is approximately $4.3 billion to $6.8 billion at current prices. .

Vetle Lunde said: "We expect these sell-offs to weigh on market performance in the coming months, with volatile market conditions continuing into October this year."

Miner selling wave

Julius Baer analyst Manuel Villegas said: "Excess Bitcoin supply is expected to arrive at centralized exchanges in the next few days, which may put pressure on currency prices. The looming oversupply is a major factor affecting market confidence."

At the same time , miners are also facing the pressure of sharp decline in income after the halving, and it is expected that they will continue to sell the bitcoins they mine to cover operating costs. Manuel Villegas noted:

According to our estimates, the average total production cost for a Bitcoin miner is close to $54,500. When prices fall significantly below this threshold, miners may need to sell some of their token inventory to cover fiat-based costs.

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