Pre-US Election Market Talk Centers on a Potential 'Trump Trade” Lifting Bitcoin Later in 2024

As the US presidential election nears, crypto traders and analysts speculate a Donald Trump victory could significantly boost Bitcoin, per the Financial Times.

With the US presidential election approaching, crypto traders and analysts are speculating that a Donald Trump victory could significantly boost Bitcoin, according to a report by the Financial Times.

Despite hopes of a post-Halving rally, Bitcoin has faced challenges since April, including asset sales by the US and German governments and a $9 billion overhang from Mt Gox. Market talk now centers on a potential “Trump trade” that could lift Bitcoin later in 2024.

Following the Halving in April, Bitcoin's price dropped by 20% in a month, impacted by factors such as $15 billion in governmental sales and hedge funds dampening volatility. As a result, traders are now seeking a catalyst to propel Bitcoin's next upward movement.

Trump is viewed as being crypto-friendly, leading to optimism that his victory would benefit the industry and regulations. Some analysts suggest that Trump's energy policies could positively impact crypto mining. In contrast, there are concerns regarding Biden's past crypto tax proposals.

According to the report, a Trump victory could boost Bitcoin's status as a hedge against inflation and government spending. This aligns with potential policies by Trump, such as increasing the US deficit, tariffs, and tax cuts, which could raise inflation and Treasury yields.

The impact of a “Trump trade” on Bitcoin would also depend on Trump's election rival. According to RealClearPolitics Betting, Trump is currently at 55%, while Biden stands at 16.5%. If Biden were to remain a strong contender, it could bolster Bitcoin bulls, whereas a new contender entering the race might stymie Bitcoin's gains.

Ultimately, narratives and perceptions play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment, potentially boosting Bitcoin on the belief of a Trump victory.

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