The crypto market's reaction to Powell's 'dove announcement” was muted, with Bitcoin consolidating below $58,000

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell ended his two-day semi-annual congressional hearing. He talked about the current monetary policy, acknowledging that considerable progress has been made on inflation, while saying that inflation does not need to be below 2% before cutting interest rates, without specific details. inflation figures to determine interest rate cuts.

Market watchers generally expect at least two interest rate cuts in 2024, and Powell's dovish comments reinforced that expectation. The CME FedWatch tool shows traders now see a 75% chance of a rate cut in September, up from 73% yesterday.

The stock market interpreted this statement positively, and optimism pushed U.S. stocks to new highs one after another. Both the S&P index and the Nasdaq index rose for seven consecutive days and hit record highs in intraday trading. As of Wednesday's close, The S&P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq all rose sharply, rising 1.02%, 1.09% and 1.18% respectively. The S&P closed above 5,600 points for the first time in history.

The crypto market is still consolidating. BTC rose to a high of $59,500 in early trading on Wednesday, but fell under pressure in the afternoon and fell back below $58,000. As of press time, BTC was trading at $57,557, a 24-hour drop of 0.36%. .

The altcoin market is mixed. Among the top 200 altcoins by market capitalization, SATS (1000SATS) led the way with an increase of 21.7%, followed by Siacoin (SIA) with an increase of 17%, and Rocket Pool (RPL) with an increase of 13.9%. Dog [Runes] (DOG) led the way down, down 5.7%, with Galxe (GAL) and Flare (FLR) both down 4.7%.

The current overall market value of cryptocurrency is US$2.12 trillion, and Bitcoin’s share is 53.4%.

The German government’s coin sale is about to end

On Wednesday, the German government once again transferred more than 10,853 Bitcoins to various CEX and market maker addresses, worth $637.7 million. According to data from the on-chain analysis platform Arkham, the recipients of these transfers include Flow Traders, Coinbase, Kraken, Cumberland DRW and B2C2 Group, presumably intend to sell.

Data shows that as of press time, the German government still holds approximately 15,520 Bitcoins, worth more than $890 million.

Meanwhile, the price of Bitcoin has fallen by around 17% since German authorities began moving funds to exchanges on June 18, hitting a low of $53,500 last week. Many analysts believe that if the German government address continues to be transferred at the current rate, all of its confiscated Bitcoins may be sold by the end of this week.

ETF inflows remain “healthy”

Flows into U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have increased, with a total of $654.3 million flowing into these products in the three trading days since July 4 .

Although ETF inflows have been erratic over the past few months following record highs, overall ETF demand remains healthy.

ETF Store President Nate Geraci tweeted yesterday: "Today alone, the money put into BlackRock IBIT exceeds the combined assets of nearly 90% of all 300+ ETFs launched this year. Most ETF offerings Businesses are struggling to get $121 million in daily inflows, while IBIT has absorbed $18 billion in six months. Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, said: "It's a 'pretty good' day for IBIT." (such as $121 million yesterday), which is more than the total assets under management at the end of the year for most ETFs launched this year. About 500 ETFs were launched last year, and we are halfway through 2024, and 76% of them still have assets below $121 million. . It is difficult for new issuers to attract US$100 million in funds in the ETF market. However, since the launch of IBIT, the number of days it has attracted more than US$100 million has reached 60 times!”

Analyst: BTC needs at least Reclaiming the range low of $60,000 as support

Secure Digital Markets analysts believe that Bitcoin will encounter continued short selling after every rebound. The key level to watch is $60,500. A breakthrough of this level will mean that Bitcoin Back into bullish territory.

In terms of Bitcoin prices, market analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that although Bitcoin prices briefly exceeded $59,000 in early trading on Wednesday, they subsequently fell back below $58,000, indicating that "Bitcoin is not ready to break the downward trend." BTC “The range low of $60,600 needs to be reclaimed as support to return to the re-accumulation range broken out last week.”

Market analyst Mustache took a bullish view, noting that Bitcoin is about to experience the 100-day moving average for the first time in its history and the 200-day moving average crossover.

CryptoQuant 链上数据显示，比特币正处于本市场周期的关键阶段，因为有几个因素预示着价格将继续下跌，而其他因素则表明价格即将触底。

其中，比特币损益（P&L）指数在其 365 天移动平均线附近徘徊，之前的下行交叉是 2021 年 5 月和 11 月开始的深度下跌的前兆，导致市场出现重大调整。此外，Tether 的市值增长通常被认为是牛市的关键驱动力，但目前已陷入停滞。

然而数据显示，比特币巨鲸正在继续以一年多来最快的速度囤积，巨鲸的比特币持有量在当月增加了 6.3%，创下 2023 年 4 月以来的最高水平。

其他一些利好因素，例如美 SEC 即将批准以太坊 ETF 等，都暗示尽管短期内出现疲软迹象，但长期来看仍将继续上涨，Bitwise 首席投资官 Matt Hougan 也在一份报告中表示，关键利好因素可能推动比特币在年底前升至 10 万美元。

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