10x Research points the way again: This time, look at 60,000 first, then 50,000

Author: 10x Research The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could give final approval to the issuance of an Ethereum spot ETF at any time. Meanwhile,

Cryptocurrencies appear to be on a rebound this week, a rebound we predicted in our report last weekend on expectations that the U.S. will release lower-than-expected CPI data on Thursday . The oversold indicator shows that the market is looking forward to a possible small-scale rebound, which means that the market trend will reverse in the short term.

Currently, two of the three reversal indicators have shown bullish signals, and the RSI (relative strength index) is temporarily reported at 38%, which means that short sellers may also need to wait and see temporarily until the price of Bitcoin is between 60,000 and 62,000 The US dollar's price range encountered resistance, which in turn caused the market to decline again.

From a technical analysis perspective, the price range of $55,000 to $56,000 is forming a support position.

However, considering that the mid-term technical situation has deteriorated, we predict that this will only be a short-term rebound and will not last long. It is particularly important to note that the recent trend of Bitcoin falling during Asian trading hours and performing relatively well during European and American trading hours continues.

Although the price of Bitcoin has fallen by 20% in the past 30 days, Bitcoin futures traders have remained relatively bullish since expectations for the approval of an Ethereum spot ETF increased on May 20. Since this point in time, Bitcoin’s open interest has increased from 260,000 BTC to 305,000 BTC, and is temporarily reported at 277,000 BTC. However, the price of Bitcoin has fallen from US$66,000 to US$57,000 during the same period; the situation is similar for Ethereum, Although the trading price has remained basically unchanged at around $3,068, open interest has increased from 2.6 million ETH to 3.1 million ETH.

Since May 24, the negative premium of Grayscale Ethereum Trust Fund’s net asset value (NAV) has shrunk significantly to only -1.5%, which has narrowed significantly from the peak in December 2022 (-60%). This is mainly due to the expectation that the Ethereum spot ETF will be approved soon. The Grayscale Ethereum Trust has approximately $9 billion in assets under management, and the ETN’s transition to an ETF means investors will be able to freely redeem their shares.

Once the Ethereum spot ETF starts trading, Grayscale’s redemptions could cause significant selling pressure, similar to what happened with Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) in January 2024. Since the Bitcoin spot ETF opened for trading, GBTC’s assets under management have decreased by 47%. It is predicted that Grayscale’s capital outflows may offset the capital inflows of the other five ETF issuers.

Therefore, although the current price of ETH is still similar to when the SEC expressed its intention to approve, there may still be a potential "good-for-nothing" market when the S-1 is approved. In the case of ETH, open interest in the futures market shows a strong bullish attitude towards ETH, while potential grayscale outflows could once again influence market movements.

A similar pattern exists on Bitcoin,

that is, before the CPI data is released, the inflow of funds into spot ETFs has already started. Following the Bitcoin ETF’s net inflows of $143 million last week, ETF net inflows hit another $295 million on Monday. This echoes the 20 consecutive days of net inflows totaling $4 billion observed during the release of CPI data in May and June. However, it should be noted that after the release of CPI data in June, Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.2 billion. net outflow.

The market expects the CPI data to be released on July 11 to drop to 3.1%, which is in line with our guess and the market’s rebound expectations. If the core CPI can fall by 0.2% month-on-month, it is expected to still affect the price trend of Bitcoin. However, potential selling pressure from the German government, Mt.Gox, and the upcoming Bitgo cannot be ignored.

关于“FTX 债权人可能获得约 160 亿美元赔偿金”的新闻近期引起了市场的广泛关注。然而，FTX 的许多债权实际上已被专业的破产理赔机构收购，这些机构只会关注债权本身的回收预期及套利空间，很可能不会将所收到的美元再次投入加密货币市场。我们预计，重新流回市场的资金规模可能在 32 亿至 50 亿美元之间。此外，2022 年 11 月FTX 清算之时比特币价格约为 16800 美元，如今则是 57000 美元，当下的回调对于 FTX 的债权人而言并不算什么诱人的折扣。

FTX 客户对破产清算方案的表决截止日期为 8 月 16 日，相关听证会则会在 10 月 7 日举行，届时 Dorsey 法官将考虑是否批准该方案。值得一提的是，海外债权人在最终赔付时可能面临高达 30% 的扣税。

综上，我们预计比特币接下来很可能会先反弹至 60000 美元左右，继而再次下跌至 50000 美元左右的低位，之后市场将进入一个相对复杂的交易环境。届时，我们预期市场将从心理层面上逐渐消化了来自德国政府和 Mt.Gox 的抛压，这将为后续的一些看涨事件重新铺平道路，比如八月中旬时 FTX 理赔的期望变化，以及即将到来的美国选举对比特币的潜在影响。

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