Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Bulls and Bears Await US CPI Data to Determine the Next Market Direction

Bitcoin (BTC) has remained below $60K for a week and was down 7% in Q3 as of press time. The downward pressure has mainly come from the government and Mt. Gox sell-offs.

Bitcoin [BTC] has been trading below the crucial $60K mark for over a week now. At press time, BTC was down 7% in Q3. This sell pressure has largely been attributed to the German government and Mt. Gox sell-offs, which offered bears market leverage.

However, according to a market observer, Bitcoin bears’ days could be numbered, as a key sell pressure from the German government might ease soon.

‘Bears, you better hope for a very high % of Gox sellers to soon join you in force otherwise, your days look numbered right now’

Bullish catalysts for Bitcoin

The pseudonymous analyst listed several bullish catalysts for BTC, including rising global liquidity and possible absorption of the remaining German government BTC holdings by next week.

‘German gov only started selling ~$3bn of $BTC 50% already sold + likely concludes in a week or so at current pace.’

According to data from Arkham Intelligence, on Thursday, the German government sent over $60 million in BTC to centralized exchanges, bringing their BTC balance to 13.1K coins, or about $767 million.

Bitcoin could also benefit from the FTX payout, which was estimated to be around $16 billion and to be paid in cash at the end of Q3 2024. This could add more liquidity for BTC and the broader market, the analyst noted.

Another analyst, Miles Deutscher, supported the above positions, including a Trump win, and called the catalysts a ‘massive opportunity’ for long set-ups.

However, another market observer, MartyParty, questioned the impact of Trump’s win, given the recent push for the CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) to oversee spot BTC markets.

‘If the CFTC is granted this expansion of authority, it would mean that they are likely going to require any Bitcoin company to register with the federal government and have enhanced KYC/AML requirements. This won’t only affect exchanges, but any company that touches spot Bitcoin.’

Where next for Bitcoin price?

Sursa: BTC/USDT, TradingView

Meanwhile, BTC has been seen teasing the 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) but has not yet flipped it into support. This weak market structure was further confirmed by below-average readings on the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and CMF (Chaikin Money Flow).

However, the next BTC price direction could be determined following the June US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data, set to be out on 11 July.

A slower inflation print could confirm the deflationary trend and tip the Fed to consider rate cuts, possibly setting BTC up to mount the 200-day SMA.

But a hotter-than-expected inflation could give bears more leverage to send BTC lower. Interestingly, the founders of Glassnode reiterated the above stance and viewed the CPI data as likely to set the next direction for BTC price.

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