Insights into the market from nine major data perspectives: The bear market has not yet arrived, and bargain hunting funds are quietly deploying

Let’s talk about the recent supply, demand and market conditions of Bitcoin. Below is an analysis of the conditions regarding miners, the German government, ETFs and futures.

The miners surrendered and we are now in a bear market? the answer is negative.

The market is bearish until the hash rate rises (thin yellow line in the chart). Miners are selling and this happens after every halving as well. When the thin yellow line resumes its upward trend, it is basically a good buying opportunity.

The main factor in this market panic is that the German government continues to sell seized Bitcoins.

The movie2k gang (criminal suspects) have been holding BTC since 2013, and the value has increased by more than 100 times to about $3 billion.

The German government is now in charge of these assets and is ready to sell them immediately.

I saw the so-called best comment: "This is bullish, when was the last time Germany made a good decision?"

Let's get back to the topic.

They have sold more than 10,000 Bitcoins (Editor's note: the tweet was published on July 9), and it seems that the selling method was market price selling, which further depressed the price of Bitcoin. At the same time, it also Let the assets they keep depreciate.

Rumor has it that they have now moved to an OTC trading desk and let the professionals handle it.

This will reduce the severity of the price impact, but will not completely eliminate it. The OTC trading platform will go to the market to fill the order matching gaps between buyers and sellers.

Let’s review the situation in Mentougou again.

It seems that 2,700 BTC have been distributed to users recently, with 139,000 left. This number is indeed quite large. I will observe how many of these people choose to sell the recovered Bitcoin.

What about the market players who buy and sell ETFs?

To my surprise, money is flowing in steadily and ETF data shows players are buying the dip. It's too early to draw conclusions, but there are hints that the market is in "dip hunting" mode.

Watch as BTC price trades sideways in a compressed range of low volatility while BTC leaves exchanges – this is bargain hunting.

How is the total capital flowing into Bitcoin?

It has fallen into a common reversal zone.

What about the futures market?

The heat map below is the position of market leverage liquidation. If the price wants to climb higher, clear all shorts until $77,000, but there is also a large liquidation point at $47,000, which is the next stop for the market to turn bearish.

The question is, which way will the dominant wind direction go?

This is another perspective of the futures market. There are still too many speculative funds, and it is difficult for prices to rise in this case.

There are too many “paper BTC” bets. We haven't reached that to the moon moment yet.

Let’s look at another chart and we’ll understand.

Paper BTC staking has been rising, with 140,000 additional BTC being added out of thin air, but the spot supply remains unchanged. Now compare that to the 10,000+ BTC sold in Germany and you can see what caused the market to really plummet.

The risk signals in the chart below show that the market has not entered a bear market. In addition, the U.S. stock market hit new highs, and traditional financial markets still favor a bull market.

The current consolidation period will be an opportunity for investors who are hoarding Bitcoin.

The market is in a period of deep consolidation, which is meant to scare traders to the core and push the pain of liquidation to the limit.

A break below the $47,000 mark could still crush the bulls, but for now it looks like the market’s dip has begun.

Let’s wait and see. If you are using leverage, I would wait for the hash rate to rebound.

Remember: Use spot market margin, don’t use futures.

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