Pendle Finance is an innovative interest rate derivatives protocol. Simply put, it achieves the separation of principal and interest by splitting interest-bearing tokens (i.e. tokens that generate income when held) into principal tokens (PT) and revenue tokens (YT). This mechanism allows users to choose different risk and return exposures according to their own needs and manage their investments more flexibly.
In the past two years, Pendle has stood out in the fierce market competition and has successfully become the well-deserved leading protocol in the LSDFi/Yield field. However, Pendle’s TVL has recently dropped from nearly $7 billion to $3.4 billion, and the token price has also been nearly halved.
This phenomenon has attracted widespread attention. Therefore, this article will analyze in detail the reasons for this TVL decline and observe the impact on PENDLE tokens, in an attempt to summarize the future expectations of PENDLE tokens for readers’ reference.
According to the latest Defilama data, Pendle’s total locked-up volume (TVL) climbed to a peak of $6.7 billion on June 10. However, over the next two weeks, TVL dropped a precipitous 40%, with approximately $3 billion withdrawn from Pendle. The main reason for this significant decline is that multiple financial products on the Pendle platform expired, causing users to stop staking and evacuate.
Pendle TVL (Source: Defillama)
Since June 26, Pendle users have withdrawn more than $3 billion in deposits, which mainly comes from liquidity re-pledge Token (LRT) withdrawal. By comparing the decline in the total lock-up volume (TVL) of these re-hypothecation protocols with the trend of Pendle’s TVL, we can find that they all reached a peak between June and July and then gradually fell back. ...
Swell TVL (Source: Defillama)
Zircuit TVL (Source: Defillama)
The significant withdrawal of LRT liquidity on the Pendle platform was mainly affected by the following two factors: · Pendle on-site market and automatic market maker ( The products in AMM have expired · The airdrop of re-pledged projects is expected to be reduced or implemented (such as Ether. fi, Puffer, Renzo and other projects)
· For example, Ether. fi is about to start the Season2 airdrop. 
Pendle’s on-site products expired on a large scale on June 27 (Source: Pendle official website)
Since Pendle’s total lock-up volume (TVL) reached its peak on June 10, As of July 8, TVL has declined by approximately $3 billion in total. Such a sharp reduction mainly involves the withdrawal of some particularly important market assets, including Ether. fi’s weETH, Ethena’s sUSDE, Zircuit’s token ezETH and Renzo’s assets, etc. The withdrawal of these assets is not just affected by a single factor, but the result of a combination of factors. Withdrawal of major assets
For the withdrawal of major assets in the market, the possible reasons are:
1. Ether.fi’s weETH withdrawal
Ether.fi recently announced that it will start the Season2 airdrop, which may prompt investors to choose Cash out your profits and withdraw your capital early. In addition, lower market expectations for airdrops may also cause some investors to take a wait-and-see attitude and choose to temporarily withdraw from the market.
The expiration of deposits in these projects has also made investors choose to withdraw from staking and recover funds. In addition, the platforms on which these assets are located may face liquidity pressure, prompting investors to withdraw as soon as possible to avoid risks.
In addition to the withdrawal of expired assets, many assets scheduled to expire in July, August, and September have also been withdrawn early. The possible reasons are:
· Fluctuations in market sentiment: In the cryptocurrency market, investors Emotions fluctuate greatly. Once adverse news comes out of the market, it will trigger panic, leading to the early withdrawal of a large number of assets.
· Liquidity needs: Some investors may choose to withdraw capital before maturity due to their own liquidity needs.
· Adjustment of market expectations: Investors adjust their investment strategies according to market and policy changes, and risk aversion increases.
Pendle daily trading volume on the market (Source: sentio)
According to the situation in the figure below, ve Pendle unlocking volume reached a significant peak in June and July 2024. It can be seen that the retracement time point of Pendle TVL is also related to the unlocking time point of ve PENDLE. The unlocking of a large number of tokens often brings selling pressure in the market. Investors may sell in advance in anticipation of a price drop, causing the price to decline. This may be transmitted to the PENDLE token itself, causing anticipated selling pressure. A large number of unlocks will lead to an increase in the number of PENDLE tokens circulating in the market, and the price may fall if supply exceeds demand.
vePENDLE unlocking situation (Source: Dune)
On the other hand, the whale user with the second largest holding of PENDLE tokens is 0xb262 F75 dbBff55 F14 E2 a50 e2 d9 d751 E2 13 C81 ED0 in July On the 8th, more than 1 million PENDLE were deposited to Binance, worth more than 3 million US dollars (the left side is the deposit amount and price point, the right side is the token change amount and value)
Whale address Shipping operation 2024.7 (Source: Mest.io)
According to the data on the chain, it can be found that this address has successively deposited multiple high-value PENDLEs to Binance for sale since February this year, totaling 19 million US dollars, of which in April Sales fetched up to $11 million.
Historical shipments of whales (Source: Mest.io)
is reflected in the token itself. The price has begun to fluctuate since before the unlock on June 27. Recently, it has It went from a high of $6.17 on June 23 to $3.45 on July 8, a drop of 44% in a short period of time.
PENDLE Price Trend (Source: Coingecko)
On June 25, the proportion of whale users on the market was as high as 71.2%, but by June 28, whale users The proportion plummeted to 4.7%, almost reaching a historical low. During the same period, retail investor holdings increased from 27.1% to 92.4%. This shows that the selling behavior of giant whales has had a significant impact on retail investors, and the chip structure in the market has changed dramatically.
PENDLE chip structure (Source: Dune)
自 6 月 30 日起，巨鲸用户持仓比例逐渐回升，这表明部分巨鲸用户重新开始抄底或建仓 PENDLE 。对于散户而言，这具有一定的参考价值。然而，由于此前巨大的卖压，当前市场中新增加的 PENDLE 买家数量较少，多为重复交易者。
一般情况下，当新增买家数量在重复交易者中显现突破迹象时，这往往是代币价格短期突破的信号，反之亦然。
如同之前所提及的，巨鲸频繁的高额充值势必将在市场造成抛售的巨大压力，这种压力会极大地影响市场价格，使其在短期内迅速下跌。
从 6 月 23 日 $6.17 到 7 月 8 日 $3.45 的下跌幅度（约 44%）验证了市场对此类巨额卖单的敏感度。
在短期内，由于不断有巨额代币涌入市场，可能会继续持有恐慌心态，这将进一步压低币价。
巨鲸的操作手法很大程度上对散户持币者和中小交易者构成破坏心理，可能导致恐慌性抛售不断。
如果巨鲸的抛售处于高峰或接近尾声，短暂的价格稳定和缓和期或许会出现，之后将可能迎来市场自我修复。
市场一旦确认巨鲸已完成大规模抛售，剩余部分代币价值可能会逐步回升并找到新的平衡点。
目前来看， PENDLE 代币缺乏足够的动能，新增买量无法形成明显支撑。因此，在短期操作中也应该注意大盘相关风险，避免过早抄底而带来的潜在损失。相比之下，长线投资者可以考虑分批建仓或定投，这样的风险相对更低，也更为稳妥。
PENDLE 新旧交易者情况（Source：Dune）
· 一旦市场消化完这些大单交易，并且没有新的重大卖压或负面消息影响，价格可能逐步企稳，并在新的支撑位上开始反弹。
· 需关注其他巨鲸或持币大户是否有类似的操作迹象。
Restaking 赛道标的（如 Eigenlayer ）的落地和 TVL 变动情况可能会对 Pendle 的发展产生一定影响。投资者应关注相关数据，并灵活调整投资策略。不过，考虑到 Pendle 的良好基本面，长期来看， PENDLE 仍是一项值得关注和选择的投资标的。
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