Can Worldcoin significantly extend the token unlocking time to reverse the massive selling pressure?

Since March, WLD (Worldcoin) has continued to trend downward, with the unit price falling from the highest point of nearly 12 USDT to the lowest of 1.72 USDT. The fundamental reason is that in addition to the overall downward trend of the market, the more important factor is the large and continuous selling pressure on WLD's token unlocking.

However, in recent days, Worldcoin has made two consecutive changes to the token release rules, causing the token to rise by 8% and 13% in one hour respectively. How big the original selling pressure was on WLD and what impact the two modifications had on the continued unlocking will be explained by Odaily in this article.

WLD token unlocking data

WLD token was launched on July 14, 2023, with an initial circulation of 143 million, including 100 million loans from market makers, for a total of 10 billion. Excluding the loan part, the actual initial circulation is 43 million coins. The first three years of WLD token release are the most rapid. In the first year, all community tokens will be unlocked. From the second year, institutional unlocking will begin and last for two years.

One year after the token was issued, WLD’s

real circulation has risen to 276 million, with an inflation rate as high as 541%

. Please note that the actual circulation is based on the data returned by the Orb API. Token Unlocks uses the upper limit data of theoretical circulation. The initial circulation is 500 million, and the current circulation is 1.65 billion. However, in fact, these tokens still need to be transferred to real circulation by governance control, and it depends on The rate at which these tokens enter circulating supply is controlled by governance. Three days ago, WLD celebrated its first anniversary and started unlocking TFH (Tools for Humanity). The theoretical circulation will increase from the current 1.65 billion to 6.5 billion. Corresponding to 6.62 million coins being unlocked every day, based on the current unit price of 2.8 USDT, there will be a daily selling pressure of US$15.42 million

.

If calculated based on the ratio of the current real circulation to the upper limit, the daily selling pressure is approximately 2.76/16.5 × 1542 = 2.58 million US dollars. However, it is impossible to predict how long this ratio will last and how it will change.

(Odaily Note: Tools for Humanity is the actual technology development body and the operator of World App. TFH unlock includes investors, employees, consultants, etc.)

What is the impact of modifying the unlocking rules?

Worldcoin has modified them respectively The first modification of the two token release rules occurred on July 10. Worldcoin announced that the claim period for unclaimed WLD reserved tokens would be extended by one year. This proposal actually increased the selling pressure on WLD. The background of this part of the token is that shortly after the launch of Worldcoin in July 2023, the Worldcoin Foundation introduced the WLD token reservation mechanism, allowing users who have not yet passed Orb verification to reserve WLD tokens and redeem them at a certain point in the future. Get as many people as possible involved in Worldcoin, regardless of whether Orb devices are available or not.

This modification allows WLD that was originally unclaimable to re-enter the market,

increasing the number of WLD that can be sold in the next year. There is no public data available on the specific number of WLD tokens affected, but according to a tweet from Worldcoin, this change affects 6 million users.

TFH unlocking extension

Yesterday, Worldcoin announced again that the token locking period for early Worldcoin contributors of Tools for Humanity will be extended, and the token unlocking period for 80% of TFH investors and team members will be adjusted from two years to four Year

.

According to the original release plan, the TFH team and investors will unlock 3.19 million tokens every day, with a current value of approximately US$7.44 million. The modified daily unlock is reduced to (319 × 80% ÷ 2+ 319 × 20% ) = 1.914 million pieces, and the data given in the Worldcoin announcement is that about 2 million pieces are unlocked every day.

To sum up, the amount of tokens unlocked has dropped from 6.62 million per day to approximately 5.4 million

, with no order of magnitude change.

Conclusion

Although this token release modification has not substantially reversed the continuous selling pressure on WLD, WLD has risen by 29% since the announcement. World coin has also shown its news many times in the past year. Trading ability should theoretically be "long short, short long". However, World Chain is about to go online, and if its specific rules are given actual use cases for WLD, the fundamentals will be reversed again, which deserves readers' follow-up attention.

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