After the Ethereum spot ETF is launched, various parties predict the short- and medium-term currency price trend.

On July 22, the U.S. SEC officially approved the S-1 applications of multiple ETF issuers, and the Ethereum spot ETF was officially approved for listing and trading. Trading started at 9:30 U.S. Eastern Time on July 23.

According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, the spot ETH ETF group’s trading volume reached $112 million in the first 15 minutes after it started trading. This is a huge trading volume compared to the issuance of ordinary ETFs, but it is only equivalent to the BTC ETF group. (excluding GBTC) half the first-day trading volume, but still exceeded expectations. In the first 15 minutes, Grayscale ETHE had a trading volume of $39.7 million, Bitwise ETHW had a trading volume of $25.5 million, BlackRock ETHA had a trading volume of $22.5 million, Fidelity FETH had a trading volume of $15.2 million, and others.

Large market maker Wintermute expects Ethereum ETFs to receive up to $4 billion in inflows from investors over the next year. That's below the $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion most analysts expected, which is already about 62% less than the $17 billion Bitcoin ETFs have raised so far since they began trading in the United States six months ago. Wintermute does expect the price of Ethereum to rise by 24% over the next 12 months, driven by these inflows.

Daniel Yan, founder of Kryptanium Capital and co-founder of Matrixport, tweeted about the ETH ETF: I still hold on to the contrarian view that ETH/BTC will actually move lower rather than higher in the coming weeks. Reasons include: people will buy when the rumor is out and sell when the truth is revealed; net traffic may be negative. It expects ETH/BTC to fall below 0.05 and stabilize between 0.0475 and 0.05.

US regulators have rejected an issuer’s request to allow an Ethereum ETF to pledge its holdings of the cryptocurrency. "This loss reduces the competitiveness of the ETH ETF compared to direct holdings, as investors can still benefit from staking," Wintermute said in its report.

Kaiko Index Director Will Cai said in a report Said: At the end of last year, the United States launched a futures-based ETH ETF, but the demand was not ideal. All eyes are on the launch of spot ETFs, with high hopes for rapid accumulation of assets. Regardless of the long-term trend, the price of Ethereum is likely to be “sensitive” to the amount of inflows in the first few days of trading. Implied volatility shows a lack of confidence in the launch of the ETH ETF.

Citibank reported that net inflows into Ethereum spot ETFs may be equivalent to 30%-35% of Bitcoin ETFs, which means the potential net inflows into Ethereum ETFs within six months will reach $4.7 billion to $5.4 billion . But due to the lack of staking and Bitcoin’s first-mover advantage, capital flows may be insufficient.

Grayscale says that nearly a quarter (25%) of potential (US) voters would be more interested in investing in Ethereum if an Ethereum (spot) ETF were approved.

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, said a U.S. spot Ethereum ETF could attract $15 billion worth of net inflows in its first 18 months. He expects investors to allocate roughly in line with the market caps of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs ($1.2 trillion and $405 billion), providing about 75% weighting to spot Bitcoin ETFs and about 25% to Ethereum ETFs. Weights. There are currently more than $50 billion in assets under management through spot Bitcoin ETFs, and Hougan expects that number to reach at least $100 billion by the end of 2025.

Crypto analysis firm K33 Research estimates that the upcoming spot ETH ETF in the United States will have an estimated inflow of $3 billion to $4.8 billion in the first five months, which will be equivalent to 800,000 to 1.26 million based on current prices ETH is accumulated in ETFs, accounting for approximately 0.7%-1.05% of the total token supply. K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde said this supply-absorbing shock should cause ETH prices to rise. Additionally, K33 believes that the omission of staking will not negatively impact inflows into the ETF. Previously, JPMorgan predicted $3 billion in inflows to the ETH ETF this year and believed that the omission of pledges would affect inflows.

The total Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF market is expected to grow to $450 billion, according to a Bernstein report, suggesting that more than $100 billion will flow into crypto ETFs over the next two years. The broker previously predicted a Bitcoin cycle high of $150,000 in 2025, with a year-end price target of $90,000. Furthermore, the report claims that Ethereum is the first PoS token to be approved as a spot ETF, which has a positive impact on other blockchain tokens and Solana (SOL) may benefit.

Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra estimate that the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF will send the price of Ethereum surging 75% to $6,600. They noted that the SEC's approval of a similar Bitcoin product in January spurred a 75% rise in Bitcoin prices in the following weeks, and expected similar changes in ETH's price action. However, Kaiko analyst Adam McCarthy believes that there is not much demand for the Hong Kong ETH ETF, and it has experienced several days of net outflows. The lack of staking is also an important factor and may further impact demand.

渣打銀行分析師 Geoffrey Kendrick 表示，SOL、XRP 等加密貨幣 ETF 可能在 2025 年獲得批准。其認為，ETH ETF 的批准意味著 ETH 和類似的加密貨幣不會被歸類為證券。此外，預計 ETH ETF 可能在前 12 個月內帶來 150 億至 450 億美元的資金流入。 Kendrick 也預測，ETF 會在 2024 年底前將 ETH 推至 8,000 美元的水平。

Genesis Global Trading 前市場洞察主管、研究員 Noelle Acheson 表示，多項指標顯示機構對以太坊 ETF 的興趣遠低於對比特幣的興趣。彭博產業研究 ETF 分析師 Eric Balchunas預計以太幣 ETF 將佔「比特幣 ETF 資產的 10-15%」。 ETH 期貨 ETF 目前只有 BTC 期貨 ETF 的 4%。至於現貨以太幣 ETF 本身，現有數據顯示機構興趣可能也缺乏。

早先吳說播客中，冬兵律師認為，當比特幣 ETF 通過後，我就認為以太坊 ETF 遲早也會通過。現貨 ETF 的批准需要滿足兩個重要條件：一個是成熟的期貨交易市場，另一個是現貨和期貨價格之間的穩定性。這也是為什麼以太幣現貨 ETF 能夠在比特幣 ETF 通過後順利通過的原因。如果比特幣未來能達到 10 萬美元，那麼以太坊的價格達到 6000-8000 美元也是有可能的。這個預測相對保守，實際情況還取決於宏觀經濟走勢。 Solana 現貨 ETF 通過的可能性較小，因為缺乏期貨 ETF 以及去中心化程度不足。

彭博 ETF 分析師 James Seyffart 在訪談中表示，現貨以太幣 ETF 的需求可能會達到現貨比特幣 ETF 需求的 20% 至 25%。 JamesSeyffart 指出，這項預測是基於以太坊市場規模約為比特幣的 30%。以太坊 ETF 的限制因素包括無法進行質押和無法利用鏈上實用性。 Bitwise 首席投資長 Matt Hougan 預測對現貨以太坊 ETF 的 “巨大需求”，需求將來自於多樣化投資和對高成長技術投資的興趣。

Cobo 與 F2pool 聯創神魚表示，ETH ETF 上市初期，主要資金流入可能來自散戶，佔總資金的 80-90%，機構用戶參與較少；12 月後機構投資者或逐漸進入市場。

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