On July 23, 2024, the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF was officially listed for trading. It is exactly 10 years since the first public offering (ICO) of Ethereum on July 22, 2014. The listing date of the Ethereum ETF, whether it is deliberately chosen on this A monumental moment, or a coincidence, this event will have epic significance for the future sustainable development of the entire crypto world, because it has taken an important step for the POS public chain to enter the mainstream financial world and will surely attract more The addition of builders of many dimensions and numbers to the construction of the Ethereum ecosystem has paved the way for subsequent encryption world infrastructure such as Solana to enter the mainstream world, which is of substantial significance to the popularization process of the blockchain ecosystem.
On the other hand, since Ethereum ETF currently does not allow staking from a regulatory perspective, investors holding ETFs will receive 3%-5% less staking mining income than directly holding Ethereum tokens (nothing in the Ethereum world) Risk-return rate), and public investors have a higher understanding of Ethereum than Bitcoin. Therefore, the short-term impact of the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF on the price of Ethereum may not be as good as the short-term impact of the Bitcoin spot ETF on BTC after approval. The price has a large impact, which mainly improves the relative stability of Ethereum price and reduces volatility.
The following will analyze the short-term impact on the power of Ethereum token buyers and sellers after the Ethereum spot ETF is listed, and the long-term impact on the encryption ecosystem.
According to SoSoValue’s continuous tracking of Bitcoin spot ETF, the factor with the greatest impact on the currency price is the single-day net price Inflow, that is, the actual new buying/selling scale brought by Bitcoin spot ETF cash redemptions to the crypto world (see Figure 1 for details), thus affecting supply and demand and determining prices. According to the S-1 document disclosure, the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF has the same application and redemption mechanism as the Bitcoin spot ETF, both of which only support cash application and redemption. Therefore, the single-day net inflow will also be the most important observation indicator of the Ethereum spot ETF; There are two main differences:
图 1：以太坊现货 ETF 上市初期净流出对于比特币价格影响分解（数据来源：SoSoValue）
1 , Selling: 9.2 billion US dollars of Grayscale ETHE, with a 10-fold difference in management fees from competitors, will still bring about early relocation selling, but it will be less than the impact of GBTC outflow
Looking back at the initial sharp increase in Grayscale Bitcoin ETF (GBTC) There are two reasons for the large net outflow: on the one hand, the management fee is significantly higher than that of competitors, which brings about a relocation effect. Investors redeem from the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF, which has a management fee of 1.5%, and buy into the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF, which has a management fee of about 0.2%. Other ETFs; on the other hand, early trust discount arbitrage, profit-taking after the ETF price flattened, resulting in selling. At the beginning of the year, the ETF directly converted from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC asset management scale of US$28.4 billion) was listed and saw sustained large-scale net outflows of funds. There are two main core reasons. First, Grayscale GBTC management fee is 1.5%, which is about 6 times that of competitors, which makes investors who are optimistic about Bitcoin assets in the long term move their positions to other ETFs; second, before GBTC is converted into ETF, The discount has remained around 20% for a long time, stimulating investors to arbitrage the discount rate by buying discounted GBTC and shorting BTC on the market. Such arbitrage funds sell ETFs and take profits after the trust's discount largely disappears when it is converted to an ETF. According to SoSoValue data, GBTC’s net outflows lasted from January 11 to May 2, and then slowed down, during which time its Bitcoin holdings fell by 53%.
图 2：GBTC 上市以来净流出情况（数据来源：SoSoValue）
与 GBTC 的直接转化不同，灰度此次在以太坊信托转为 ETF 的过程中，同步拆分 10% 净资产成立低费率的以太坊迷你 ETF（股票代码 ETH），即灰度旗下会有两只以太坊 ETF，管理费分别为 2.5% 和 0.15%，稍微缓解了高费率带来的挪仓流出压力。根据 S-1 文件披露，灰度以太坊信托（股票代码：ETHE）将向灰度以太坊迷你信托（股票代码：ETH）转移约 10% 的以太坊，作为迷你信托 ETH 的初始资金；之后两只灰度以太坊 ETF 将独立运作。对于已经持有 ETHE 的投资人而言，在 7 月 23 日，其持有的每股以太坊信托 ETHE，都将自动获配 1 股以太坊迷你信托 ETH，同时 ETHE 的净值调整为之前的 90%。考虑 ETHE 的管理费率为 2.5%；迷你信托 ETH 的管理费率 0.15%（前 6 个月 20 亿美元内免管理费），也就是说，对于 ETHE 现有投资人，其 10% 的资产将自动配置在低费率 ETF 中。参考 GBTC 最终资金搬家的比例为 50% 左右，预计以太坊迷你信托 ETH 的分拆推出，管理费的早鸟优惠，将缓解灰度 ETHE 的短期资金流出压力。
另一方面，因为 ETHE 折价提前收敛，折价套利盘平仓带来的流出压力预计也小于 GBTC。灰度 ETHE 一度大幅折价，在 22 年底时折价高达 60%，24 年 4-5 月折价一度超过 20%，但从 5 月底开始折价收敛到 1%-2%，到 7 月收敛为 1% 以内；而 GBTC 在转换为 ETF 前 2 天（1 月 9 日），折价率仍保持 6.5%。因此对于套利盘而言，ETHE 获利了结动力大大降低。
图 3：以太坊现货 ETF 费率对比（数据来源：S-1 文件）
图 4：灰度以太坊信托 ETHE 历史折价（数据来源：Bloomberg）
2、来自股市的买盘力量：大众对以太坊共识远不如比特币，资产配置动力小于 BTC 现货 ETF
对于大众投资人而言，比特币逻辑简单易懂，共识已达成：数字世界的黄金，稀缺度明确，总量 2100 万枚，因此非常符合其已有的投资框架；而以太坊作为第一大基础公链，其挖矿机制相对复杂，发展受到生态多方力量的影响。最重要是作为投资标的的供给数量，涉及时时通胀通缩，计算过程动态复杂，认知门槛较高，普通投资人难以直观理解。简单来说，一方面，从供给角度，以太坊原则上供应量无限，在最新的 POS 机制下，区块奖励带来的质押收益驱动其供给量增加，链上生态活跃度影响的用户交易 Gas 费燃烧驱动其供给量减少，进而形成动态的供需平衡机制；最新供应量约 1.2 亿枚，近期年化通胀率在 0.6%-0.8%。另一方面，从常规的基本面角度，是其作为公链，面临其他公链竞争，对于竞争终局大众投资人并没有信仰。市场上目前有 Solana、Ton 等公链生态，也为大众投资人所知，但是具体分析其竞争力，对于大众投资人门槛极高，所以普通投资人如果看好加密货币的投资价值，可能还是会首选配置供给稀缺、没有竞争的比特币现货 ETF。
公开数据也显示了以太坊 ETF 和比特币 ETF 存在显著热度的差异。比较代表大众关注度的谷歌搜索热度，以太坊仅为比特币的 1/5 左右（详见图 5）；而观察此次以太坊 ETF 发行的种子基金（一般为基金管理人 / 承销商出资），Fidelity 给旗下以太坊 ETF（股票代码 FETH）的种子资金规模仅为其比特币 ETF（股票代码 FBTC）的 1/4，其他发行商如 VanEck、Invesco 等差距也较大（详见图 6）。
图 5：比特币和以太坊谷歌搜索热度对比（数据来源：Google Trend）
图 6：同一发行人旗下以太坊 ETF 及比特币 ETF 种子资金规模对比（数据来源：S-1 文件）
3、来自加密圈内的买盘：由于缺乏 ETH 链上 3%-5% 的基础质押收益率，需求基本不存在
加密投资人也贡献了比特币现货 ETF 的部分买盘，主要出于现实世界资产证明的需求。加密投资人持有比特币 ETF，只用付出 0.2%-0.25% 的年费率，就可以拥有传统金融市场的资产证明，便于在大众世界的经济生活，平衡金融资产和比特币持仓，并借此进行各类杠杆操作，如押借贷，构建结构化产品等，对于部分高净值的加密投资人是有吸引力的。而由于比特币是 POW 算力挖矿机制，并没有稳定的 POS 资产质押收益，考虑到加密货币和法币的平均出入金成本在 0.2%2%，所以持有比特币 etf 和直接持币收益差距并不大。
但对于以太坊现货 ETF，由于监管不允许 ETF 获取质押收益，对于加密投资人，持有 ETF 会比直接持有以太坊现货，少 3%-5% 的无风险年化收益。以太坊采用 PoS（权益证明）机制，通过验证者节点质押以太坊资产 来验证交易并维护网络，并获得区块奖励，即所谓的 POS 挖矿机制。由于这种收益来源于网络协议和系统内置奖励机制，因此被视为以太坊生态的，链上无风险基础收益率。近期以太坊质押收益率稳定在 3% 以上。所以如果通过 ETF 来实现以太坊的头寸配置，会比直接持有以太坊现货，少至少 3% 的年化收益率。所以加密圈内的高净值人群，对以太坊现货 ETF 的买盘，可以忽略。
图 7：以太坊转为 POS 机制以来质押收益率（数据来源：The Staking Explorer）
以太坊作为目前规模最大的公链，其现货 ETF 获批，是公链融入主流金融世界的重要一步。梳理 SEC 审批加密货币 ETF 的标准，以太坊在防操纵、流动性、定价透明等方面均符合 SEC 要求，后续可以期待有更多符合要求的加密资产陆续通过现货 ETF 进入大众投资人视野。
对比来看，公链中 Solana 也一定程度上满足以上指标（详见图 8），Vaneck、21Shares 已先后提交 Solana 现货 ETF 的申请，伴随着加密货币期货等传统金融市场工具的不断丰富，后续可以期待更多加密资产 ETF 的获批，从而进一步占据传统投资人心智，登堂入室，加速发展。
图 8：代表性 Layer1 公链核心数据对比（数据来源：公开数据整理）
综上所述，由于以太坊现货 ETF 的买卖盘力量均弱于比特币 ETF，且经历过灰度 GBTC 流出造成的比特币错杀，市场对于灰度 ETHE 的流出也有准备，再叠加距离比特币现货 ETF 上市已有 6 个月的时间，以太坊现货 ETF 获批利好经过市场反复交易，已经很大程度上反应在了现有以太坊币价中，预计短期对于以太坊价格的影响，要小于之前比特币现货 ETF 上市对比特币的影响，以太坊的波动也可能更小。如果上市初期因为灰度流出再次造成错杀，将是不错的布局机会。投资人可以通过 SoSoValue 专门推出的美国以太坊现货 ETF 看板进行关注。
长期来看，加密生态与主流世界正由过去的各自发展走向融合，这中间会有一段不短的认知磨合过程。而加密生态新旧参与方之间认知的差异，可能会是未来 1-2 年，影响加密货币价格波动和创造投资机会的核心要素。历史上新兴资产融入主流世界的过程，总是上演分歧产生交易，大幅波动不断带来投资机会，很值得期待。
이더리움 ETF의 승인은 암호화폐 생태계 애플리케이션이 주류 자산 배분에 들어갈 수 있는 길을 열어줍니다. 솔라나와 같은 다른 인프라와 다수의 사용자 및 생태계가 점차 주류 세계에 통합될 것으로 예상됩니다. 암호화폐 세계가 주류 세계로 진입하는 동안 시대적 진보의 이면, 즉 주류 세계가 암호화폐 세계로 진입하는 과정 또한 미국 국채를 중심으로 한 주류 금융자산이 조용히 계속 발전하고 있다. 또한 RWA(Real World Assets) 토큰을 거쳐 정식으로 체인에 배치되고 점차 암호화 세계로 진입하여 글로벌 금융 자산의 효율적인 순환을 실현합니다.
비트코인 ETF의 승인이 암호화와 전통의 통합 이후 새로운 세계로의 문을 연다면, 이더리움 ETF의 통과는 그 문으로 들어가는 첫 번째 단계입니다.
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