Vitalik's latest speech: Ethereum's past ten years and the next ten years

Written by: Pzai, Foresight News

Yesterday, at the Ethereum developer conference EDCON 2024 held in Tokyo, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin gave us a related speech on "The Next Ten Years of Ethereum", It not only provides a brief review of the changes that have occurred in Ethereum over the past 10 years, but also paints for us a picture of infinite possibilities for Ethereum in the next 10 years from a forward-looking perspective.

Changes in the past ten years

First of all, Vitalik reviewed the changes in social interfaces, from EtherTweet, which simply uploaded information to the chain in 2015, to the current multi-client Firefly, including changes in user experience and underlying architecture. The latter can produce higher efficiency and lower costs, and availability has been improved. Vitalik regards Firefly as a "Farcaster+Twitter+Lens client". Posts published using Firefly can be published to Farcaster and Lens at the same time.

Then Vitalik compared the improvements in issues related to on-chain interaction. In 2019, the cost of using the main network was relatively large, and the cost of ZK-SNARK was even greater. The current transaction cost is usually less than one cent. Ethereum has significantly reduced associated fees and increased transaction processing speeds through scaling over the past decade. In terms of confirmation time (Tx inclusion time), it usually takes 1 to 5 minutes in 2019. If you are unlucky, you may need to wait up to 60 minutes to include the transaction. Now, after the implementation of EIP-1559, this process has been increased to 5~20 seconds, and second-level confirmation is achieved on Layer2.

In addition, proposals such as EIP-4337 have improved the applicability and security of smart contract wallets. Vitalik expects smart contract wallets like Safe to be adopted by almost everyone within the next five years.

Vitalik said that the related use cases of blockchain have not changed much in the past 10 years, focusing on stable coins, financial derivatives, decentralized exchanges and prediction markets, so future use cases need to be discussed. He talked about decentralized exchanges and prediction markets in 2014 (the cost of the popular prediction market Polymarket is now much lower than before), but he did not predict the popularity of NFTs.

Vitalik said, “I did not expect people to trade a digital monkey for up to $2 million. In 2020, I paid $1,000 in transaction fees on Augur, and today’s transaction costs on Polymarket Almost zero. Very interesting things have happened in the past 10 years, so what will happen in the next ten years?

Ethereum’s outlook for the next 10 years

In terms of wallets, take wallet UI as an example, Ethereum’s 2015 The wallet interface is highly homogeneous with Bitcoin, and the wallet in 2024 will be more biased towards the experience of traditional applications. Vitalik believes that neither is the paradigm of the future wallet, because Ethereum is committed to creating a new type of social system based on the chain.

In 2024, an application developed by a Ukrainian company is building a zero-knowledge proof voting system. Voting itself can also be a government election. If it is combined with zero-knowledge proof and privacy protection, it will be more credible. Looking forward to 2034, if we can make voting itself more transparent, efficient and secure, we can expand the use cases of "voting governance" in life and combine it with certain financial elements.

In terms of expansion, Vitalik said that the blob will be expanded to 1 ~ 4 MB in the future, and will reach 16 MB/mainnet block in the future. While achieving the protection of Ethereum and its ecosystem, it will also use transaction compression and other technologies. Allow users to benefit from the expansion environment.

In terms of user experience, Vitalik hopes to integrate more self-sovereignty and security in future wallet construction based on the traditional user experience. For example, in encrypted wallet custody, a model that combines on-chain and off-chain is adopted. The "guardian" mode can enhance the protection of the wallet. In terms of the dual dimensions of user experience and security, the value of Web2 user experience and Web3 user sovereignty will be combined in 2034, making it more secure than traditional Web2 services. In addition, using Ethereum L2 will become as frictionless as using the Ethereum mainnet directly.

또한 Vitalik은 대화형 프런트 엔드에 대한 표준화된 경험도 제안했습니다. 즉, 프런트 엔드의 관련 디스플레이(ERC-3770 및 ERC-7683 등)를 통해 EVM 아키텍처 내에서 멀티 체인 경험을 통합하는 것입니다. 여기서 Vitalik은 예측을 사용합니다. 시장을 예로 들면, 원래 사용자는 서로 다른 체인으로 인해 발생하는 잘못된 전송 위험에 주의하라는 메시지가 표시됩니다. 앞으로는 단일 프런트 엔드를 통해 원활하게 직접 상호 작용할 수 있습니다.

또한 Vitalik은 빌더가 Web2를 복사하는 것뿐만 아니라 첫 번째 단계를 밟고 탐색할 만큼 용감해야 한다고 믿습니다. 2034년에는 데스크톱 및 모바일 장치뿐만 아니라 기본적으로 AI, AR 및 BCI를 실행하는 웨어러블 장치도 있을 것입니다. 또한 일부는 커뮤니티 노트, 예측 시장 및 지갑이나 브라우저에 직접 내장된 유사한 기술을 갖춘 장치도 있을 것입니다. 보안 측면에서 모든 것을 검증하거나 온체인 콘텐츠 버전 인증 등을 제공할 수도 있습니다. 이러한 구조는 또한 지속적인 보안 문제 속에서 사람들을 원천적으로 보호한다는 암호화폐의 의미를 불러일으킵니다.

마지막으로 Vitalik은 이에 상응하는 요약을 작성했습니다. 그는 지난 10년 동안 Ethereum의 개발이 이론에 집중했다고 말했습니다. 이제 개발자는 사용자가 요구하는 수준의 경험을 달성할 수 있으며 충분히 강력하고 중요한 애플리케이션입니다. Ethereum을 기반으로 구축되었으므로 이제 모든 사람을 위한 가치를 유지하면서 세상에 영향을 미치는 애플리케이션을 구축하는 방법에 관심을 돌릴 때입니다.

"우리는 어떤 애플리케이션을 만들고 싶은가요? 모두의 가치를 지키면서 어떻게 구축할까요? 답은 모르겠지만, 우리 모두, 모든 개발자, 모든 빌더, 그리고 일체의 모든 사람들이 모든 사람은 미래를 형성하는 데 참여할 수 있는 기회를 갖고 있습니다."라고 Vitalik은 말했습니다.

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