Harris is neck-and-neck with Trump in general election polls

Author: John Byrne-Murdoch, Oliver Lord

Source: FT Chinese

US Vice President Kamala Harris (left) and Donald Trump general. Harris has made gains among nearly every demographic group since President Joe Biden dropped out of the election

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has made gains in nearly every demographic group, according to a Financial Times analysis of the latest data. Less than a week into the presidential campaign, he tied former President Donald Trump in the polls.

President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after a poor performance in a debate with Trump a few weeks ago and immediately expressed his support for Harris. Since then, she has all but erased the Democrats' disadvantage relative to their rivals in national polls, according to a Financial Times average of poll results.

While Biden trailed Trump by 3 percentage points on the day he dropped out of the presidential race, Harris and the former president are currently neck and neck in national support.

The U.S. election is ultimately decided by the Electoral College, so it can also be said to be decided by a small number of winner-take-all "battleground" states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In all six key battlegrounds, Harris’ recent polls are 1 to 3 percentage points higher than before Biden dropped out of the race more than a week ago. Biden exited the race trailing by two points or more in each of those six states, while Harris is now tied 50-50 with Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin and with Trump in Nevada, Pennsylvania and Arizona The difference is within one percentage point. Statistically, all states are in a stalemate.

According to apples-to-apples comparisons from numerous pollsters, Harris has made gains among nearly every demographic group since Biden dropped out. In particular, her support has increased among blacks, Latinos, young and female voters, and independents. Only one group - voters over 50 - saw a slight decline in support.

Forecast traders tracking this competition closely noticed these changes. Harris' price on two prediction markets, Polymarket and PredictIt, has surpassed her pre-Biden debate price, although they still rate her slightly worse than Trump, whose price surged after the July 13 assassination attempt. .

With less than 100 days until the election, Harris has injected significant enthusiasm into the previously demoralized Democratic Party.

In this race where turnout is crucial, Harris’ candidacy has also revived enthusiasm among Democratic voters. A Financial Times analysis of polls shows that 73% of people who voted for Biden in 2020 said they were "excited" to vote for Harris, while only 37% said they were excited to vote for Biden again. . In addition, the proportion of voters who voted for Biden in 2020 who planned not to vote this time dropped from 10% to 3%.

With renewed enthusiasm comes generous fundraising. Harris' campaign announced on Sunday that it had raised $200 million in less than a week, two-thirds of which came from first-time donations.

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