Bitcoin [BTC] Price Prediction: Is the Bottom Near?

Bitcoin [BTC] has fallen below the 200-day simple moving average. It was currently trading within the $60k-$60.5k support zone but has a good

output: As Bitcoin price shows a break below the 200-day simple moving average, it is currently trading within the $60,000-$60,500 support zone but there are chances of a drop to $56,000 and possibly lower.

The Crypto Fear and Greed index was 48, according to CoinMarketCap. The market is bearish and investors may be tempted to trade on margin to recoup their losses, but this can backfire spectacularly.

Is Bitcoin bottom near?

Source: Axel Adler on X

Crypto analyst Axel Adler stated that price declines have ranged from 17 to 23 percent since May 2023. The current figure was 16.4 percent. Compared to the last twelve months, the bottom seemed near.

Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView

The

Fib retracement level is at $56k and was already tested as support in early July. The failure of the bulls to defend the 200-day simple moving average was a strong bearish sign.

Also, the curved line drawn in the chart above shows the point where the $61,300 level meets the 200-day moving average and the curved line support, making its failure even more significant.

Did the derivatives market get too hot?

Source: Coinglass

Since March, the level of 70 thousand dollars, which is close to the all-time high, has not been passed convincingly. During this period, Open Interest remained in the range of $30 billion to $35 billion.

Last week it fell by $4 billion, reflecting bearish short-term sentiment.

A proper bull run requires high spot demand, and when the futures market gets too hot, the distress experienced by overzealous bulls and bears, often through price swings, can reset the upward trajectory.

Source: CryptoQuant

The estimated leverage ratio has been rising since June. An increase in this metric indicates that investors are taking increased risks with leveraged transactions. The reason for this may be the hope for a bullish breakout.

Read Bitcoin's [BTC] 2024-25 Price Forecast

This may reduce the possibility of an exit as the liquid price retreats to bearish levels.

An earlier report stated that selling pressure from long-term holders has decreased in recent weeks. This meant that the $60,000 level could be a local bottom, but a deeper pullback could not be ruled out due to macro events and market-wide panic.

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