Polymarket Convinces Thiel, Buterin to Back Its Billion-Dollar Prediction Marketplace

Prediction marketplace Polymarket's soaring popularity has convinced top-tier investors, including Peter Thiel's Founders Fund and Ethereum cofounder Vitalik

Crypto billionaire Founders Fund and Ethereum cofounder Vitalik Buterin are among the investors who have poured a total of $74 million into prediction marketplace Polymarket.

According to Dune Analytics, Polymarket has already processed over $650 million in trading volume so far this year, with nearly $300 million wagered in July alone. By the end of the year, the platform is on track to handle $1 billion in predicted bets. These bets range from the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election to the price of bitcoin and the fate of Web3.

A recent Dune Analytics dashboard tracks the total volume of predicted bets on Polymarket, which now stand at around $1.1 billion. Campaign managers and political analysts now consult this unconventional oracle for insights, and even former President Donald Trump has highlighted his Polymarket odds on his social media app, TruthSocial.

In an exclusive interview with Forbes, Polymarket’s 26-year-old founder and CEO Shayne Coplan discussed how his team transforms “internet yelling matches” into a high-stakes information powerhouse.

The billionaires whose fortunes are tied to publicly traded crypto firms Coinbase and MicroStrategy have sold a combined nearly $850 million worth of shares in the last nine months.

Michael Saylor, the founder and CEO of MicroStrategy, a software firm that has invested heavily in bitcoin, has sold $362 million of MicroStrategy shares since the start of 2024, according to regulatory filings. Brian Armstrong and Fred Ehrsam, cofounders of Coinbase, the most popular crypto exchange in the U.S., sold $216 million and $270 million of Coinbase shares, respectively, between last November and late July, filings show.

These sales come amid a rise in cryptocurrency prices. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, recently hit around $70,000—more than double its value a year ago—before sliding to $62,500 on Thursday.

Sources: Forbes Digital Assets, CoinGecko. Prices as of 4:55 p.m. on August 1, 2024.

Tether, the operator of the largest stablecoin USDT, reported a net operating profit of $1.3 billion in the second quarter, largely due to interest from its U.S. Treasury holdings, despite a decline in bitcoin’s value. For the first half of the year, Tether’s profit reached a record $5.2 billion, according to the company.

David Marcus, creator of Facebook’s short-lived stablecoin project Libra (later known as Diem), endorsed Donald Trump ahead of the November presidential elections.

In a post on X, Marcus described his political shift, citing key issues central to Trump's platform. “I believe we need a president who is unequivocally pro: America, the Constitution, business, Bitcoin/crypto, innovation, Israel, small government, legal immigration, free speech, meritocracy and common sense—and anti: regulatory proliferation, illegal immigration, unjust wars, Iran’s current regime and domestic groups that oppose American values,” Marcus wrote.

Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris’s team has reportedly reached out to crypto spokespeople following President Joe Biden’s announcement that he would not seek reelection and endorsed Harris as the Democratic Party’s nominee.

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