Astros Playoff Odds: Houston's recent struggles have them as a literal coin flip

In his first year at the helm, Astros manager Joe Espada is hoping that his veteran-laden team has enough down the stretch to take home the AL West crown once again.

The Houston Astros are in a good position to make the playoffs, but they’re not guaranteed a spot yet. According to FanGraphs, the Astros have a 69.5% chance of making the playoffs. The number drops to about a 62% chance to win the division and only an 8% chance to get into the MLB Postseason by way of the Wild Card. So Houston's path to the playoffs is clear - go win the AL West again.

The Astros have been struggling lately, but they still have a good chance to make the playoffs. They get the benefit of a relatively easy schedule over the final month-plus. According to ESPN, the Astros have the fourth-easiest stretch of games from now until the end of the regular season. The problem is that three playoff contenders (Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Guardians, and Minnseota Twins) have an even easier schedule.

That puts an emphasis on Houston's most likely path to the postseason coming by way of the AL West title. While the schedule isn't an arduous as those faced by teams like Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox, Houston still has a tall task in front of them, and the biggest question mark is the health of the roster.

Two key players — Justin Verlander and Kyle Tucker — are still missing in action, and the Astros need both fully healthy for the stretch run. The Astros are in a virtual dead heat with the Seattle Mariners, and Houston is 4-6 against their division rivals this season.

That puts an even greater emphasis on the late-September visit from the M's to Minute Maid Park, as it may well decide who's playing in October and who's sitting at home.

The Astros are not in a precarious spot, but things aren't coming up roses in Houston either. While a near 70% chance of making the postseason is certainly better than where the Texas Rangers find themselves, the margin for error is rather small. The race for the postseason will likely come down to the final week of the season.

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