Ming-Chi Kuo said that the driving force of Galaxy AI is slowing down and estimates that Samsung's foldable screen mobile phone shipments this year will be about 8-9 million units.

According to news on August 13, Ming-Chi Kuo released a market investment briefing today, believing that the two mobile phones Samsung will release in July 2024, Galaxy Z Fold6 and Galaxy Z Flip6, will use Galaxy AI as the main selling point, but pre-orders will drop by 10% year-on-year. Samsung's foldable screen mobile phone shipments in 2024 will be 8-9 million units, a slight decline from last year.

Industry status and survey update:

• Although initial demand for the Samsung S24 series of mobile phones was better than expected, shipment momentum has begun to slow down since April.
• Samsung’s new foldable phones (Galaxy Z Fold6 and Galaxy Z Flip6) in July 2024 also use AI as a main selling point, but pre-orders fell 10% year-on-year. Samsung will ship approximately 8-9 million foldable phones this year, a slight decline from last year.
• It is currently expected that the S25 series shipments in 2025 may be the same as the S24 in 2024.

Conclusion:

• It is a general trend that mobile phone brands have invested in AI services one after another. Certain component suppliers will benefit from this trend.
• There is currently no clear evidence that Google/Samsung’s continued improvement of local AI services can once again drive a wave of phone replacements.
• The shipment volume of Android foldable phones (Samsung & Chinese brands) is lower than expected. If the user experience is not significantly improved, its growth space may be limited.
• Some market participants are optimistic that mobile phone and PC shipments will grow significantly due to local AI. If the iPhone 16 series fails to exceed expectations due to Apple Intelligence after its release, the above optimistic expectations may be revised and create downside risks for related stocks.

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