Bitcoin (BTC) Struggles to Break $62K Resistance as S&P 500 and Gold Near All-Time Highs

Bitcoin BTC $57,510 telah terperangkap dalam julat sempit sejak 8 Ogos, dan tidak dapat melepasi $62,000 sambil mengukuhkan sokongan pada $58,000.

Harga Bitcoin (BTC) telah disatukan dalam julat yang sempit sejak 8 Ogos, berdagang dalam kumpulan $58,000 hingga $62,000. Fasa penyatuan ini telah berlaku apabila peniaga menyatakan ketidakpastian yang semakin meningkat terhadap langkah hala tuju seterusnya BTC, terutamanya memandangkan kadar pembiayaan niaga hadapan Bitcoin negatif yang berterusan, yang menunjukkan permintaan rendah untuk leverage daripada pembeli.

Namun, sesetengah peniaga mungkin tertanya-tanya sama ada penunjuk ini sahaja boleh menentukan arah pasaran mata wang kripto atau jika corak sejarah mungkin mencadangkan rali yang akan berlaku.

S&P 500 dan emas menghampiri paras tertinggi sepanjang masa manakala Bitcoin gagal mengekalkan momentumSatu titik utama pertikaian bagi pelabur Bitcoin ialah prestasi positif indeks S&P 500, yang kini hanya 2.5% di bawah paras tertinggi sepanjang masa, dan emas, yang berdagang hanya 1% di bawah paras rekodnya. Dalam konteks ini, sukar untuk merasionalkan Bitcoin berada 19.5% di bawah paras tertinggi pada 14 Mac iaitu $73,757, sama ada mata wang kripto itu dilihat sebagai aset berisiko atau lindung nilai terhadap potensi gangguan dalam situasi hutang AS.

Selain itu, sentimen pelabur terhadap Bitcoin telah dilemahkan oleh fakta bahawa calon presiden Demokrat Kamala Harris tidak memberikan pendirian yang jelas mengenai industri kripto, melangkaui kenyataan kempen yang tidak jelas. Sebaliknya, calon Republikan Donald Trump telah mengumumkan rancangan untuk menyingkirkan Gary Gensler daripada jawatannya sebagai Pengerusi Suruhanjaya Sekuriti dan Bursa AS (SEC). Pemimpin industri lantang dalam mengkritik kekurangan rangka kerja pengawalseliaan Gensler yang jelas untuk syarikat crypto di AS.

Finally, recent economic data supporting the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) successful efforts to curb inflation without triggering a recession may have also contributed to the decreased interest in Bitcoin. For instance, US retail sales increased by 1% in July, surpassing economists’ expectations of a 0.4% rise. Additionally, the Department of Labor reported 7,000 fewer initial jobless claims than the previous week.

According to Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management US, in an interview with Yahoo Finance, a “soft landing is firmly in place.” Essentially, a stronger macroeconomic environment boosts the stock market, diminishing Bitcoin’s appeal as an independent store of value.

From a trading perspective, demand for leverage through BTC futures contracts serves as a key pulse on investor confidence. When the market is optimistic, bullish investors typically enter leveraged positions, pushing the funding rate on perpetual contracts into positive territory. Rates between 0.2% and 1.2% per month generally suggest neutral market conditions, while rates below this range are considered bearish.

Examining the data, the Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rate was predominantly negative on Aug. 14 and 15. In fact, the last time this indicator approached bullish levels was on June 8, when Bitcoin’s price tested the $72,000 resistance. This makes sense because perpetual futures are the preferred leverage instrument for retail traders, while monthly contracts, which require rollovers, often trade at a premium or discount relative to spot markets.

Demand for crypto in China has plummeted according to stablecoin dataTo determine if the lack of buyer confidence is limited to perpetual futures, one should also examine stablecoin demand in Chinese markets. Typically, strong retail demand for cryptocurrencies drives stablecoins to trade at a premium of 2% or more above the official US dollar rate. On the other hand, a discount usually signals fear, with traders eager to exit the crypto markets.

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