TechInsights: North America will no longer lead the world in smartphone replacement rates in 2024

IT House reported on July 1 that since the advent of the iPhone in 2007, the mobile phone replacement rate in North America has always ranked first in the world. However, replacement rates in North America have continued to decline since 2012, until 2019 when they were close to being on par with other regions. The latest research from the TechInsights smartphone team shows that in 2024, the Central and Latin America (CALA) region will surpass North America with a replacement rate of 28.2%, and the replacement cycle in both regions is 43 months. The global replacement rate is 23.8%, with a cycle of 51 months. Central and Eastern Europe will overtake Central and Latin America in smartphone replacement rates from 2027 to 2029.

▲ Smartphone replacement rates in various regions around the world: 2008-2029

TechInsights predicts that Central America and Latin America will still have the highest replacement rates in 2025-2026, at 28.8% and 29.6% respectively. , equivalent to a replacement cycle of 42 months and 41 months.

However, starting in 2027, the agency predicts that the replacement rate in Central and Eastern Europe will exceed that of Central and Latin America, reaching 30.8%, and will continue to rise to 33.8% - a new high in the region.

This reflects the maturity of the smartphone market and the lack of new features to attract consumers.

1. Previously, North America had the highest replacement rate in the world, but now, TechInsights expects that the replacement rate between this region and Western Europe, Central and Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe will be closer.

2. As far as North America is concerned, the United States has driven the decline in exchange rates in the region. The reason is that the replacement rate in the United States (27.7%) is lower than the replacement rate in Canada (31.4%).
3. US operators have gradually abandoned the subsidy model and switched to mobile phone finance (EIP plan) and mobile phone leasing models.
4. These new business models often lock customers into three-year plans instead of two-year plans and inhibit upgrades when the contract expires.
5. In addition, the improvement of smartphone quality and limited hardware innovation are also one of the reasons for the extended replacement cycle of smartphones in North America.
6. A similar trend has emerged in Western Europe, and although operators have not abandoned the subsidy model, in many cases the contract period has also been extended to three years.

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