Toncoin (TON) Price Prediction: Recovery Is Underway

Interest in Toncoin (TON), the native token of The Open Network, has surged to an all-time high. This spike follows the arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov in France.

Interest in Toncoin (TON), the native token of The Open Network, has reached an all-time high following the arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov in France.

As reported earlier by BeInCrypto, TON’s price fell sharply after the news of Durov’s apprehension broke. The CEO of the Telegram messaging app is reportedly facing charges ranging from conspiracy and money laundering to terrorism.

However, the impact of Durov’s arrest on the Telegram-linked cryptocurrency goes beyond just heightened interest, as this analysis uncovers several other key effects.

As a result of the increased attention, Toncoin’s Open Interest (OI) has soared to $294.14 million, marking its highest level since the token’s launch. Open Interest tracks the value of active contracts in the derivatives market.

An increase in OI often suggests more buyers than sellers, but that’s not always the case. In this instance, the significant spike indicates that traders are increasingly engaging in contracts tied to Toncoin, reflecting heightened market activity and interest.

Furthermore, the Long/Short Ratio has shifted from 0.58 to 1.40 within the last four hours. The Ratio measures investors’ expectations about a cryptocurrency. When the value is lower than 1, traders anticipate a price decrease.

Hence, the recent jump indicates that a large part of those with open contracts expect TON’s price to rebound in the short term.

Meanwhile, data from Coinglass shows that TON-related liquidations have surpassed $2 million in the last 24 hours.

Liquidation occurs when a trader’s margin balance falls below the required level, prompting the exchange to close the position. In TON’s case, the rapid price drop following Durov’s arrest largely triggered the liquidations.

It’s important to note that liquidations, coupled with rising OI, can influence price trends. Given the spike in Open Interest alongside substantial long liquidations, TON’s price might experience further declines before any potential recovery.

The hourly chart shows that Telegram CEO Pavel Durov’s arrest caused a sharp drop in Toncoin’s price, pushing it from $6.80 to $5.33. This decline drove the Relative Strength Index (RSI) into oversold territory.

The RSI measures momentum to indicate whether an asset is overbought or oversold. An RSI above 70.00 signals overbought conditions, while a reading below 30.00 indicates oversold levels.

In this case, the RSI on Toncoin’s hourly chart plunged to 13.60, clearly showing it was oversold. However, the RSI has since rebounded, suggesting that market participants are taking advantage of the dip by buying at lower prices.

This is also evident in TON’s price. Within the last hours, it increased by 5% and retested $5.66. The Fibonacci retracement series on the daily chart also gives us an insight into TON’s next move.

Given the activity revealed on the hourly chart, TON’s price could be set for a notable rebound. If buying pressure continues to increase, TON could head to the 61.8% golden ratio. Should this be the case, the cryptocurrency’s value might hit $6.13.

Additionally, TON could see a faster-than-expected recovery if Durov is released within the next few days.

However, this outlook might change if French authorities hold the Telegram CEO for an extended period. In that case, TON could face renewed selling pressure, potentially driving its price down to $5.55.

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