Bitcoin Prices May Drop by Up to 20% if Fed Cuts Interest Rates: Bitfinex

If the U.S. Federal Reserve slashes interest rates for the first time in four years later this month, bitcoin analysts at Bitfinex forecast the

Bitcoin prices could drop by up to 20% if the U.S. Federal Reserve slashes interest rates for the first time in four years later this month, according to crypto exchange Bitfinex.

The firm told TheStreet Crypto that bitcoin’s price is likely to be influenced by the Fed’s decision due to the positive correlation between the world’s largest cryptocurrency and traditional asset classes, such as U.S. equities.

“This correlation has been observed throughout bitcoin’s history and is particularly relevant in the context of the upcoming rate cuts, which are widely anticipated by the market,” Bitfinex said.

Several factors are contributing to the anticipated change in bitcoin prices, including signs of cooling inflation, signals of a weakening job market, and a statement last month from Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell about the looming cuts.

“The time has come for policy to adjust,” Powell said. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks.”

While bitcoin has normally underperformed in September, Bitfinex analysts underscored that a negative outcome was not guaranteed and that positive price momentum was still possible.

“It’s important to note that while September has often presented challenges for bitcoin, this does not predetermine a negative price movement or preclude the potential for positive price momentum,” the firm said.

“Overall, the interplay of several macroeconomic indicators, including the anticipated rate cuts, will continue to influence bitcoin’s price trajectory in the coming weeks,” Bitfinex added.

Bitcoin prices have fallen sharply in September over the past two years. In 2021, the world’s largest cryptocurrency dropped by 24% during the month, while it fell by 16% in September 2022.

しかし、ビットコインは 2020 年 9 月に 10%、2021 年 9 月に 30% の上昇も記録しており、同月にプラスの価格変動が見込まれる可能性を強調しています。

「9月は伝統的にビットコインにとって不安定な月であり、平均リターンは4.78%、典型的なピークから底値までの下落率は24.6%である」とBitfinexのアナリストは述べた。

「このボラティリティは、ファンドマネージャーが休暇から戻り、人間主導の取引活動が増加するため、夏の終わりの取引が停滞していることが原因であることが多い。 9月に予想される利下げはさらに複雑さを増し、市場のボラティリティをさらに悪化させる可能性がある。」

「この 9 月の歴史的な価格動向は、利下げ後のビットコイン価格の 20% 下落という予想と一致しています。しかし、過去の傾向は、8月が赤字で終わっても、9月は時折予想を裏切ってプラスの利益をもたらしたことも示していることは注目に値する。」

と彼らは付け加えた。

「これは、9月が必然的にビットコインにとって弱気な月になるという仮定に対する反論となる可能性がある。」

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