Bitcoin (BTC) Could Drop to $46K This Month, Pseudonymous Analyst Rekt Capital Warns

An analyst who accurately called Bitcoin's pre-halving pullback this year is mapping out what he believes could be the most bearish price path for BTC.

An analyst who predicted Bitcoin’s pre-halving price pullback earlier this year is now outlining what he believes to be the most bearish price path for BTC.

Pseudonymous trader Rekt Capital tells his 86,100 YouTube subscribers in a new video update that Bitcoin tends to follow a four-year cycle that’s pegged to the halving – an event that reduces BTC miner rewards by 50%.

Zooming in on the cycles, Rekt says that every four-year period, Bitcoin had to contend with a “three-year resistance” level – going as far back as 2013.

According to the trader, BTC had to breach the three-year resistance around $700 in 2017 and $13,856 during the 2021 cycle before setting a market top.

For this cycle, Rekt says that the three-year resistance stood at $46,000, a price level that BTC has already cleared.

However, the trader notes that Bitcoin could revisit the zone to retest it as support before sparking the next leg up.

“If we look at the dynamics of how this transition occurs, candle four tends to set up potential retests of this three-year resistance into new support to propel price to new all-time highs and beyond…

If we focus on candle four and the halving year candle, there is always scope for the retest during the year of that three-year resistance, from resistance into new support… And it looks like there is potential scope for a retest of this level into new support. That would mean that we need to drop into $46,000 for that retest. That would mean that we need to drop 19% this month.”

While the trader says that a drop to BTC $46,000 this month is within the realm of possibility, he highlights that it’s a low-probability event considering that Bitcoin is in a halving year, and not in a bear market.

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $54,197, up slightly on the day.

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