Bitcoin (BTC) Might Drop to $31k, Here's Why

Bitcoin [BTC] investors have been struggling for quite some time now as the king coin continued to lose value. In fact, a recent analysis points out a

Bitcoin [BTC] investors have been having a tough time as the king coin continues to lose value. A recent analysis points out a development that indicates a bigger price drop in the coming weeks.

Let’s have a closer look at what is going on with Bitcoin.

Why Bitcoin might drop to $31k

According to CoinMarketCap, BTC witnessed a nearly 7% price drop last week. The past 24 hours were also bearish as BTC’s price declined marginally.

At press time, BTC was trading at $54,306.75 with a market capitalization of over $1 trillion.

A look at IntoTheBlock’s data revealed that after the latest price correction, over 41 million BTC addresses were in profit, which accounted for 77% of the total number of Bitcoin addresses.

According to IntoTheBlock, BTC addresses in profit.

In the meantime, Ali, a popular crypto analyst, highlighted a notable difference in a recent tweet. The tweet highlighted the relation between BTC’s price and its realized price-to-liveliness ratio.

As per Ali’s analysis, whenever BTC’s price slips below the realized price-to-liveliness ratio, it has led to further price declines.

To be precise, a slip under that metric pushes BTC down towards its realized price. Such incidents have happened back in 2019, 2020, and 2022.

At press time, such a bearish crossover occurred. This suggested traders can expect a BTC drop to its realized price again, which at the time of writing was $31.5k.

According to Ali, BTC might head towards its realized price.

Odds of BTC remaining bearish

Since it seemed likely for BTC to drop if history repeats, we checked other datasets to find out what they suggested regarding a correction.

We found that BTC’s investor capitalization increased substantially. Historically, whenever BTC’s investor capitalization graph goes over its price, it is often followed by price drops.

A look at BTC’s investor capitalization.

We then took a look at CryptoQuant’s data. We found that things in the derivatives market were concerning as Bitcoin’s funding rate dropped. The coin’s taker buy sell ratio turned red, meaning that selling sentiment was dominant in the futures market.

However, investors at large were buying BTC. This was evident from its dropping exchange reserve and low net deposit on exchanges compared to the last seven day average.

According to CryptoQuant, BTC investors were buying the dip.

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024–2025

As per our analysis, BTC was testing its crucial support. A slip under that would suggest that the chances of BTC following past trends and moving towards $31k are high.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) registered a downtick, hinting at a failed test of BTC’s support. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained bullish as it moved northwards.

BTC technical analysis on the lower time frame.]

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