Bitcoin (BTC) Price Predictions Based on US Presidential Election Winner

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein made Bitcoin price predictions based on who will win the US presidential election.

Bitcoin price predictions have been made by analysts at Bernstein, depending on who wins the US presidential election. According to the analysts, the decentralized forecasting platform Polymarket currently shows Trump leading Harris by 52% to 47%. How will a Trump or Harris victory affect the price of Bitcoin?

According to analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein, Bitcoin is a “Trump trade” and the outcome of the US presidential election in November “could determine the fate of the sector.” If Republican candidate Trump wins, analysts expect Bitcoin to reach new highs. In this context, he predicts it will approach the $80,000 to $90,000 range by the end of Q4.

However, Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra and Sanskar Chindalia state that if current Vice President Kamala Harris wins, Bitcoin will break the current $50,000 floor. Accordingly, analysts predict that it will return to testing the $30,000 to $40,000 range. These levels would mark a return to the period when spot Bitcoin ETF momentum began.

What underlies this divergence?

Analysts also explain the reason for the divergence. They say that the crypto industry has received “more warmth” from Trump. In this context, analysts said, “Crypto industry leaders approached the Harris campaign with a more open mind. We also expect the delta between the two political outcomes to be wide, although they hope for a more constructive policy.”

Analysts note that the clarity and tone on crypto policy is also very different. Trump has talked about making the US the “Bitcoin and crypto capital of the world” in several speeches. He has also suggested that he would make the US a BTC mining “powerhouse”. Moreover, he said he would appoint a crypto-friendly SEC chairman. In addition, he outlined policies such as creating a national strategic Bitcoin reserve. In contrast, Harris did not mention crypto in any of his speeches or policy statements.

Crypto-friendly election result, positive regulatory environment ‘not priced in’

According to the analysts, the crypto market has faced significant challenges over the past three years, with high interest rates draining liquidity from decentralized finance platforms and regulatory hurdles stifling innovation. Despite this, Bitcoin has shown resilience, rising 112% in the past year, as you have been following on Kriptokoin.com. Analysts predict that a favorable regulatory environment will remove risk barriers to financial institutions’ participation. It will also help digital assets compete with traditional assets for institutional flows.

US presidential odds have recently reversed on decentralized forecasting platform Polymarket. Trump has regained the lead by five points with a 52% chance of victory compared to Harris’ 47%. In critical swing states, Trump currently leads Harris on the platform in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. On the other hand, Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin. But national polling data is still mixed. Analysts said, “Elections remain hard to call. But if you’re long crypto here, you’re probably making a Trump trade,” analysts say.

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