TON Price Risks 30% Decline in September as Telegram Crackdowns Intensify

Despite the recovery, a technical indicator suggests that Toncoin may be at risk of continuing its prevailing downtrend.

Toncoin (TON), the native cryptocurrency of Telegram-blockchain platform TON, has seen a bumpy ride in recent weeks. After taking a hit following Telegram founder Pavel Durov’s arrest on Aug. 25, TON recovered swiftly with a 15% gain to above $5.15 by Sept. 9.

However, a technical indicator now suggests that Toncoin may be at risk of continuing its prevailing downtrend.

Toncoin price risks 30% decline in September

Toncoin’s recent price recovery is part of a broader inverse cup-and-handle pattern, which is characterized by the formation of a rounding top followed by a period of consolidation.

A bearish continuation pattern, an inverse cup and handle typically resolves when the price breaks below the common neckline support and falls by as much as the maximum distance between the cup’s peak and neckline.

On Sept. 3, the TON/USDT pair entered the pattern’s breakdown stage after slipping below its neckline support of around $5. A week later, its price was testing the same neckline as resistance.

After dropping to a low of $4.45 on Sept. 6, the TON/USDT pair recovered quickly, clocking in a 15% gain to cross the $5.15 mark on Sept. 9. A bearish technical formation suggests that the price may continue to slide. CryptoSlateチャートより

Retaking the neckline as support would likely invalidate the inverse-cup-and-handle pattern.

However, a failed attempt to move back above the neckline after a successful retest would confirm that the previous support has flipped into resistance, indicating that sellers are still in control and the breakdown is likely to continue.

In that case, Toncoin’s downside target would be around $3.60, down approximately 30% from the current price levels.

Crackdowns against Telegram, Durov intensify

The bearish outlooks for Toncoin have intensified further due to its association with Telegram and Durov, primarily in the light of an ongoing global crackdown against the messaging app service.

For instance, South Korea has joined the global crackdown on Telegram, investigating the platform for facilitating deepfake crimes.

India, Telegram’s largest market with over 100 million users, also initiated a probe shortly after Durov’s arrest reports surfaced. Indonesia is considering blocking the platform due to inadequate content moderation.

Meanwhile, the European Union has been reportedly investigating Telegram for allegedly providing false user data.

Related: Toncoin hits $13.96B market cap amid Durov debacleNegative sentiment around these legal challenges could continue to weigh on Toncoin’s price, as investors may anticipate further market instability or distancing from the project.

However, Toncoin whales seem unfazed by the negative coverage. According to Santiment data, the holdings of Toncoin’s richest investors—those with a 10 million–100 million token balance (brown)—went up following Durov’s arrest.

Toncoin supply distribution among whales. Santimentチャートより

Moreover, the total-value-locked across the Toncoin ecosystem increased during September’s price decline, thanks to the launch of gaming and memecoin projects—like DOGS—on its network.

Ton Blockchain TVL. Defi LlamaチャートよりSo, the underlying Toncoin ecosystem attracted users and developers despite the headwinds.

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