Tesla\'s market share drops below 50% for the first time just as Model Y may become America\'s most popular vehicle

The most American-made passenger vehicle, Tesla's Model Y, is on the cusp of also becoming the bestselling car in the US, edging out the Toyota RAV 4, just as it beat the mighty Ford F-150 pickup truck.

The market share trend of the Toyota is on a downward trajectory, while the Tesla keeps rising through the ranks, buoyed by various Model Y deals and tax credit incentives, even though a new Juniper facelift is on its way.

Despite the popularity of the Model Y, which was the world's bestselling passenger vehicle last year, Tesla's overall EV market share in the US seems to be shrinking. Just a couple of years back, it sold no less than 80% of the electric vehicles in the US. Now, however, Tesla's market share may have fallen below 50% for the first time, according to preliminary deliveries analysis ahead of the quarterly results unveiling tomorrow.

While Teslas are becoming less popular among electric vehicle buyers due to the increased competition and lack of new models, those of rivals like Hyundai, Kia, or Ford, are increasing their market share. Tesla's unprecedented market share loss comes despite an overall growth in the EV market which just hit 9% of the total vehicle sales in the US for the first time, the highest ever.

Tesla's Q3 delivery estimatesgo up to 472,000 units, which would still place it in the "less than 50%" market share zone for the first time since it launched its bestselling Model Y. Back in 2022, when Tesla's brand loyalty metrics went below the industry average for the first time, S&P analysts predicted that it will slowly be sliding towards the20% market sharemark due to the increasing number of automakers with competitive electric vehicle offerings.

The analysts pegged 2025 as the year that Tesla will drop to the 20% market share threshold, as that is when a lot of automakers have declared they will be ready with their mass market EVs. Since then, however, a general demand malaise hit the electric car market, so that prediction may have to be altered. Still, if Tesla's drop from 80% to less than 50% market share took just two years, it is not hard to fathom that the increased competition may put even further downward pressure on its total share of the pie.

In 2025, however, Tesla is expected to release the Juniper refresh of its Model Y, as well as bring the Cybertruck price down and make its first Robotaxi ride, so it might just stabilize its market share instead of losing more ground to the likes of Hyundai, Ford, or even GM that just started shipping the cheapest300-mile electric vehicle in the US.

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