Bitcoin's Rocky October Start Pushes Reclaiming ATH to 2022, Analyst Willy Woo Says

Bitcoin climbed past $61,400 on Wednesday after taking a major tumble amid escalating conflict in the Middle East, dampening expectations for an October rally.

Bitcoin price rose past $61,400 on Wednesday, following a steep decline amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, which appeared to dampen expectations for an October rally.

Bitcoin attempted to recover from a sharp drop on Tuesday, as its price briefly fell below the $60,000 mark. The cryptocurrency faced further pressure following Iran’s attack on Israel, which sparked concerns among investors.

As a result of the geopolitical developments, Bitcoin’s attempt to reach its all-time high of nearly $74,000 may take longer than anticipated, according to some analysts.

Bitcoin Analyst Anticipates Sideways Trend in October

Prominent Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo suggested that Bitcoin’s short-term market structure appeared bearish, while the mid-term outlook shifted from bearish to neutral, indicating potential for bullish momentum in the future.

In a recent tweet, Woo stated that the cryptocurrency’s attempt to reach its all-time high would take more time, with his analysis indicating a cooling-off period of 1 to 3 weeks before the next bullish effort.

Woo also expressed skepticism about a typical “Uptober,” suggesting instead that Bitcoin may experience a sideways trend throughout October, followed by a more optimistic outlook in November and December.

Despite the short-term challenges, Woo maintained a long-term bullish perspective on Bitcoin, highlighting the asset’s appeal and growth potential as the geopolitical crisis escalates.

Bitcoin: A Risk-On or Risk-Off Asset?

According to a note by Presto Research, yesterday marked the worst start to October for crypto since 2013, as Bitcoin’s price dropped significantly lower after Iran's attack on Israel. This contrasts with BlackRock’s recent promotion of BTC as a risk-off asset like gold, with the precious metal performing much better in the short-term.

The key difference in their short-term movements is attributed to their respective maturity phases. Gold boasts a rich 5,000-year history as a store of value, leaving little room for incremental network effects.

On the other hand, Bitcoin, with only 15 years of history, is still in the early stages of mainstream adoption, and its narrative is “still poorly understood.”

This provides ample opportunity for significant network effects, as per Presto Research, which makes Bitcoin’s risk profile comparable to that of an internet startup. As a result, BTC functions as a hybrid of both risk-on and risk-off asset, with the risk-on characteristics more apparent in the short term and risk-off potential materializing over the long term.

“A useful reference here is gold's price volatility in the 1970s. The reopening of the US gold market in 1974, after the private ownership ban since 1933, likely added to its price volatility as the market reassessed gold’s value in a world of floating exchange rates, inflation, and new monetary policies. Its volatility eventually settled to a more stable level from the mid-1980s onward.”

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