Polymarket Sees Rapid Growth as U.S. Election Betting Heats Up

Blockchain-based betting site, Polymarket, has seen a rapid hike in user activity and transactions over the last few months.

Blockchain-based betting site Polymarket has seen a rapid hike in user activity and transactions over the last few months.

According to Dune Analytics, all-time trading volumes on Polymarket have now surpassed $2 billion. This growth is largely driven by speculation around the winner of the U.S Presidential election.

In September alone, volumes on the Polygon-based betting platform hit $486 million. This number could climb significantly this month, given that month-to-date volumes have already surpassed $161 million.

Data from Artemis also revealed that on 3 October, the number of new daily active wallets on Polymarket hit a two-week high. This suggests that more users are continuing to join the platform.

On that day, the daily transactions on the platform soared to a record high of 93,000.

So, what is driving the growth of this blockchain-based betting site?

U.S election betting

The U.S Presidential race has certainly stirred interest in Polymarket. The “Presidential Election Winner 2024” bet on Polymarket has more than $1.19 billion in volumes.

At press time, former U.S President Donald Trump had taken a narrow lead of 49.9% while Kamala Vice President Kamala Harris trailed closely with 49.1% of bets in her favor.

This wager will close on 4 November, a day before the U.S presidential elections. Now, while election betting drove interest in Polymarket, the platform has quickly amassed interest in other prediction markets.

Satoshi bet gains traction

Recently, Polymarket saw a hike in interest following speculation around the identity of Bitcoin (BTC) creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.

As AMBCrypto reported, a documentary by HBO set to air on 8 October claims to have identified Nakamoto. As a result, the “Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?” bet on Polymarket has already amassed $814,000 in betting volumes, barely two days after launching.

At press time, 49.5% of wagers predicted that computer scientist Len Sassaman, who passed on in 2011, would be revealed as Satoshi. The speculation is driven by Sassaman’s history as a member of the International Financial Cryptography Association.

Is Polymarket’s growth good for POL?

Polymarket runs on the Polygon layer 2 network. The popularity of this betting site has stirred the network’s usage, but the same has not been seen in its native token POL, formerly known as MATIC.

POL was trading at $0.384, at press time, after 1.92% gains in 24 hours. This, after it fell by over 10% in just 7 days.

On the hourly chart, POL seemed to be trading within an ascending broadening wedge pattern. This is usually a bearish continuation pattern, one that suggests sellers might take control of the price action.

However, its bearish momentum was showing signs of weakness as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) line converged with the Signal line from below. If the RSI confirms a strong move above the Signal line, it will invalidate the bearish thesis.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line also highlighted a similar outlook after converging with the Signal line. However, to confirm the bullish thesis, the MACD histogram bars should turn green.

If bears take control, POL will likely plunge to test support at $0.37. However, buying activity could see POL break resistance at $0.38 and extend gains.

With POL struggling, speculation is rife that Polymarket could be launching its own token. According to The Information, this token will be used to run the betting site.

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