October's Bitcoin Market Outlook Raises Concerns With Significant Capital Outflows and Stablecoin Liquidity Drops. Will Q4 Remain Bullish?

The month of October is typically considered a favorable time for the cryptocurrency market, particularly for Bitcoin. Last October, the BTC market saw an impressive return of 28.5%.

Despite the common belief that October is a favorable month for the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, with an impressive 28.5% return last October, the latest trend of capital outflows from the crypto market has sparked concerns.

According to CEX Transparency data, nine out of the ten top exchanges reported negative inflows over the past month. Binance had the highest one-month negative inflow at -$1.446 billion, followed by Bitfinex (-$283.12 million), HTX (-$269.34 million) and OKX (-$262.57 million). Only Bybit showed a positive flow with $143.33 million one-month inflow.

A significant portion of the outflows were stablecoins, as shown by the Stablecoin Exchange Flow chart. Stablecoin liquidity on exchanges dropped from $38.5 billion to $35 billion. This index measures the buying power of the market, and a decrease suggests less interest from investors to make new purchases.

Moreover, the total Bitcoin Spot ETF net inflow data reveals that, in the first three days of October, the market experienced negative flows (-3.83K on October 1, -870.41 on October 2 and -894.05 on October 3), followed by a positive net inflow of 3.72K on the last day.

If outflows from stablecoins continue and ETF balances decrease, Bitcoin may not meet the high expectations of crypto enthusiasts this month. However, it remains to be seen whether this new trend will affect the broader expectation of a bullish Q4.

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