BTC, ETH, XRP Little Changed as HBO Calls Peter Todd the Bitcoin Creator

A compelling expose could have impacted bitcoin and the broader market's prices, but the crypto community is largely brushing off HBO's hyped documentary.

A hyped HBO documentary that claimed to reveal the identity of Bitcoin's (BTC) pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, failed to boost the cryptocurrency's price on Tuesday, as traders awaited the latest U.S. economic figures for further market direction.

Bitcoin was largely flat in the past 24 hours, with a marginal 0.4% loss, while major tokens clocked in a 0.61% price decrease, according to data from the liquid CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index on Wednesday at 08:34 ET.

Ether (ETH) rose 0.3%, while BNB Chain's (BNB), Solana's (SOL) and XRP (XRP) were largely flat in the same time frame. Sui Network's (SUI) token fell 7% on Wednesday, following a multi-week rally that saw the token gain over 20% since late September.

The HBO documentary "Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery" sparked significant interest and speculation in the cryptocurrency community about the identity of Bitcoin's creator. While some hoped that revealing Nakamoto’s true identity would lead to a sharp increase in crypto prices, past attempts at unveiling Satoshi have been largely met with disappointment.

HBO ultimately pinned the title of Bitcoin creator on developer Peter Todd, based on pieces of online evidence from the network’s early years. However, Todd denied the claims in an interview with CoinDesk, and the broader Bitcoin community on X largely dismissed HBO's apparent findings.

Betting on Satoshi's identity, China rally stalls

Betting markets also weighed in on the HBO hype, with over $44.3 million wagered on Polymarket on who would be identified as Satoshi. Most of the volume was dedicated to Len Sassaman and Adam Back, who both caught the eyes of bettors in the market’s early days.

Another market that asked bettors if Satoshi’s identity would be proven this year was fairly unchanged on Tuesday despite the documentary hype. The ‘Yes’ side of “Not Proven in 2024” dipped to 82% from 98% when the documentary was announced, but quickly moved back into the 90s within three days. It was last at 95.5%.

Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. recorded a cumulative outflow of over $18 million on Monday, with Fidelity's (NYSE:FIS) FBTC losing over $48 million in a single day, according to data from SosoValue.

Meanwhile, ETH ETFs saw over $8 million in withdrawals on Monday, with a $4.8 million outflow from Bitwise’s ETHW product.

The lack of volatility in BTC came after a Chinese briefing on Tuesday that lacked new measures or announcements of fresh stimulus, which stalled hopes of a long-drawn stimulus package that contributed to a bitcoin rally in the past few weeks.

Stocks in China went deep into the red as the stimulus euphoria appeared to wear off, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.9% and Shenzhen’s Component Index down 4%.

Traders are now eyeing an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting for clues on where BTC might move next. The agency is expected to release FOMC minutes and key economic figures from August that track growth on Wednesday and Thursday, which typically move prices.

Polymarket bettors are forecasting a 25bps decrease for November, while the chance of a 50bps decrease dropped to 9% from 46% at the end of September.

“As the Chinese rally wanes, we anticipate capital reallocation back into crypto, reflecting the industry's growing maturity as an alternative risk-on asset,” QCP Capital traders said in a Wednesday broadcast.

"We foresee near-term downside risk for equities due to upcoming earnings season and CPI release, which may challenge their lofty valuations. Geopolitical tensions further complicate the outlook.”

“However, we maintain a medium-term optimistic stance, expecting election headlines to continue driving crypto movement,” QCP added.

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