Bitcoin Could Hit $80K by Year-End If These 3 Conditions Are Met, Market Observer Says

Bitcoin has struggled to stay above $65,000 since the summer. Its price has been locked in a choppy sideways movement since peaking at $74,000 in March.

Bitcoin has been unable to stay above $65,000 since the summer months.

Its price has been locked in a choppy sideways movement since peaking at $74,000 in March.

But one market observer still believes Bitcoin can escape this lull and even hit the $80,000 level before year-end.

That is, if three conditions are met, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at crypto fund manager Bitwise.

Here are the stars that need to align for Bitcoin.

Democrats don’t sweep

Crypto’s current lull has been largely attributed to uncertainty over the upcoming US elections in November.

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has overtly courted the crypto industry this election cycle, despite his negative attitude toward the market during his first term.

Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, on the other hand, has been slow to embrace the industry and has instead made vague references to how the US should maintain a competitive edge in both crypto and artificial intelligence.

Meanwhile, crypto industry figures have criticized the Biden administration for what they see as its unfair targeting of US companies.

“For Bitcoin to continue thriving, it doesn’t need politicians,” Hougan wrote in a blog post Wednesday. “It just needs them to get out of the way.”

Hougan added that any outcome of the election other than a clean sweep for Democrats in both houses of Congress and the presidency would be a positive result for Bitcoin.

Bernstein research analysts, meanwhile, say Bitcoin will perform well regardless of the election’s outcome.

Still, the analysts predicted Bitcoin will continue to be locked into the current sideways price movement unless the market senses better odds for a Trump victory.

The analysis puts Bitcoin reaching as high as $90,000 following a Trump win but a possible short-term plummet to $40,000 if Harris emerges victorious.

Easing fiscal policies

Bitcoin also stands to rise amid a changing global fiscal climate. Both the US and China have enacted more liberal monetary policies recently.

In September, the US Federal Reserve slashed interest rates for the first time since the COVID pandemic began.

Then, China followed suit with a massive $282 billion economic stimulus to trigger growth.

Those actions prompted a minor crypto rally that saw Bitcoin cross $66,000 in late September, but the rally was ultimately cut short by renewed tensions in the Middle East.

Hougan wrote that the market is “hungry for more” of these easing monetary policies.

No black swans

The third condition? No black swans before year-end, or unforeseen events with the potential for huge consequences.

As Hougan wrote, “Crypto’s history is unfortunately beset by countless such surprises.”

Major shocks, such as hacks or massive lawsuits, could block Bitcoin’s potential to reach $80,000.

And during the summer, Germany sold off $2.3 billion of its Bitcoin, prompting a 25% price crash.

The US holds even more in seized Bitcoin, to the tune of $13 billion, and a decision to sell off the hoard in this final quarter could send the market spiraling and squash any chances of setting a new peak this year.

“If we can make it through the end of the year without similar shocks, I’d expect new all-time highs and beyond,” Hougan wrote.

Osato Avan-Nomayo is our Nigeria-based DeFi correspondent. He covers DeFi and tech. To share tips or information about stories, please contact him at osato@dlnews.com.

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