Bitcoin Halving Years: What's Expectation for 2024?

The most recent Bitcoin Halving event took place on April 19, 2024. Investors had great expectations for this latest halving year, as in the previous halving year

The recent Bitcoin halving event took place on April 19, 2024. Many investors had high hopes for this latest halving year, considering that in the previous halving year, the Bitcoin market delivered an impressive return of 304.1%. However, Ki Young Ju, in a post on X, expressed doubt as to whether this year the market can perform as excellently as its previous halving years.

Bitcoin’s Halving Years: What’s the Expectation for 2024?

So far, the Bitcoin market has witnessed at least four halving events, including the one that occurred this year. The first halving event happened in 2012. In the same year, the market provided a yearly return of 183.5% – impressive but significantly lower than the return of 1,435 recorded the year before.

From the second halving event onwards, a new trend emerged. In 2016, when the second halving event occurred, the market recorded at least 123.8% yearly return – far higher than the return of 34.4% reported the year before. The trend was almost similar in the third halving year, which happened in 2020.

In that year, the market registered an impressive return of 304.1% – at least three times better than the 90.9% return achieved the year prior. In 2023, the market displayed 155.4% return. If the market follows this trend, it must achieve a return higher than the range of 155.4%.

Right now, the price of Bitcoin is $60,788. At the start of this year, the BTC price was around $44,172.80. So far, the Bitcoin price has grown only 37.61%. Definitely, it does not look impressive.

Expert’s Concern About Underperformance of BTC in This Halving Year

Ki Young Ju pointed out that at least 285 days had passed in 2024. He warned that if there was no significant momentum in the next 14 days, this year would set a record for the longest sideways in any halving year. He shared the ‘Bitcoin Cumulative Return Index on Halving Year’ chart to support his argument.

285 days have passed in 2024. If there is no #Bitcoin bull market within the next 14 days, this will mark the longest sideways in a halving year in history. pic.twitter.com/JWHkgHC27C

Bitcoin Market Landscape: Does It Appear Favourable for A Bullish Run?

At the start of this month, the market suffered a major fall due to the unexpected escalation of the Israel-Iran power struggle. On October 1, it slipped to a low of $60,817 from $63,342. On the second day also, the market continued the downward momentum, pulling the price to another low of $60,642. Buying pressure on October 3 tried to push the price above the opening price of October 1, but it was defeated by sellers when the price touched $62,816 on October 6.

Affected by tremendous selling pressure, the price plummeted to a monthly low of $60,326 on October 10. Today, the market appears slightly bullish, as it has broken above the opening price of yesterday.

Traditionally, the month of October has been favorable for Bitcoin. In October 2023, the BTC market provided a return of 28.5%. In the first twelve days of that month, the market fluctuated between $27,995 and $26,744. On October 13, 2023, strong buying pressure emerged, resulting in a steep climb in the market from $26,779 to $34,482. In the last days of the month, the market hovered within the high range of $34,634 and $$33,909.

In conclusion, we need the repeat of the October 2023 trend this year, if we want to comply with the broader halving year trend. Time is ticking!

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