Market analysts and options traders are increasingly bullish on Bitcoin (BTC), with many predicting a potential surge to $80,000 and beyond, regardless of who wins the White House.
As the US presidential election draws near, its potential impact on the cryptocurrency market is a subject of keen interest. While some anticipate a Bitcoin rally to $80,000 or higher, irrespective of the election outcome, others believe the results may influence Bitcoin's price trajectory. Here's a closer look at the recent market developments and analysts' perspectives:
Bitcoin's recent price performance has been impressive, with a 66% gain in 2024. This resilience is notable amidst scaled-back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased scrutiny of stablecoin Tether.
Anticipating a Potential Surge to $80,000:
According to market analysts, Bitcoin's price movements are largely reflecting the anticipation surrounding the US election. Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG Australia Pty, highlights that a sustained break above $70,000 could pave the way for a new all-time high, potentially exceeding March's record of $73,798.
Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick also anticipates a strong correlation between the election outcome and Bitcoin's price trajectory. His analysis, based on options data and betting odds, predicts that Bitcoin will reach $73,000 by election day, with a further surge past $80,000 shortly after.
Options traders are also placing significant bets on a Bitcoin breakout, with a notable focus on call options at the $80,000 strike price for November and December expiry dates. This activity suggests a growing belief that Bitcoin will perform well regardless of the political outcome.
David Lawant, head of research at FalconX, observes a "notable topside-heavy bias" in options activity surrounding the election. This indicates a collective belief that Bitcoin is poised to perform well irrespective of the political outcome.
Yev Feldman, co-founder of SwapGlobal, points to the decreasing put-to-call ratio as further evidence of bullish sentiment. He adds that a post-election surge is more likely than a collapse, given the limited downside potential.
Several factors beyond the immediate impact of the election are also contributing to Bitcoin's positive momentum. These include its strong historical performance in the fourth quarter, especially in years following a halving event, and the growing institutional interest in the cryptocurrency.
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