Bitcoin (BTC) Wobbles as US Election Buzz Adds Uncertainty to Crypto Market

Bitcoin started the week on a positive note, going up by 0.6% and hitting $69,018.9 early Monday. This slight bump came after a tough weekend of losses

Bitcoin began the week in the green, rising 0.6% to hit $69,018.9 early Monday. The slight uptick follows a weekend of losses that had traders on edge. But what’s got everyone buzzing is the 42% surge in trading volume over the past 24 hours—a sign that people are watching closely and ready to make their move.

So, what exactly is driving this back-and-forth? Let’s break it down.

Election Buzz: Why It’s Making Crypto Jittery

With the U.S. presidential election just around the corner, the crypto market is feeling a bit shaky. The race between Donald Trump and Kamala Kamala Harris is closer than expected, and it’s got traders on high alert.

Trump is known to be more crypto-friendly, which usually bodes well with investors. On the other hand, Harris wants to ramp up regulations, but her stance on how that will look is still unclear. Recently, prediction sites like Polymarket showed Harris’ odds rising to 43% from 35%, while Trump's slipped to 57% from 66%. This shift in the polls is causing Bitcoin to price waver.

The Fed’s Role: Why It’s More Than Just Rates

While the election has everyone speculating, the Federal Reserve’s next move is also impacting the market. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in November, after a larger 50-point cut in September. Now, traders are watching to see what the Fed signals next.

Inflation has shown a slight decrease, with September’s rate at 2.1%, down from 2.3% in August. Additionally, wage growth has also slowed down, with a modest 0.8% rise last quarter, which is the lowest we've seen since 2021. Since the Fed meeting is scheduled just a day after the election, any decisions made could shake things up in the crypto world.

What to Expect

A scenario where inflation cools but the economy remains strong is still a possibility, although it needs to be monitored closely. Currently, there's a 94% chance of a 25-point rate cut in November and a 70% chance of another cut in December. If the Fed hints at further cuts, Bitcoin could get a boost. However, keep in mind that the election result could potentially alter the course of events.

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