Bitcoin (BTC) Market Volatility May Spike if U.S. Election Results Are Too Close to Call

With the U.S. presidential election approaching, analysts are closely watching its impact on the crypto market. David Lawant, head of research at FalconX, cautioned that if the election results are too close to call, it could increase crypto market volatility.

The upcoming U.S. presidential election is being closely monitored by various industries, including the crypto market. David Lawant, head of research at FalconX, highlighted the potential impact in a recent report. According to Lawant, if the election results are too close to call, it could lead to increased volatility in the crypto market.

The report, dated Nov. 1, includes Lawant's observations on the crypto market and its anticipation for the election conclusion. He noted that if the results are not clear-cut, it could introduce an extended period of uncertainty, which might affect the market's stability.

Many crypto traders are anticipating a sense of relief following the U.S. presidential election, irrespective of the outcome. According to Lawant, “Markets appear eager to move past election uncertainty toward firmer ground.”

This expectation stems from the challenges faced by the crypto market in recent months, which have included a lack of clear direction and stalled growth.

Bitcoin, for instance, has remained within a narrow range of $53,991 to $73,149 since April, indicating a period of limited movement. The conclusion of the election may present an opportunity for crypto assets like Bitcoin to regain momentum. Lawant's observations emphasize the importance of clear election outcomes in potentially lifting the crypto market from its current stagnation.

Some traders believe that a Trump victory could lead to favorable outcomes for the crypto market, given his previous pro-industry stance. While Lawant noted optimism among investors regardless of the election's outcome, a Trump administration is expected by some to bring more industry-specific support.

Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal suggested that a Trump win could give the market a “dopamine hit” by creating a more supportive regulatory environment.

Traders and analysts view Trump's potential second term as an opportunity for clearer crypto policies, which could contribute to stronger crypto market performance.

According to Lawant, Bitcoin and Solana (SOL) are likely to emerge as top performers in the crypto market following the election. Bitcoin, often viewed as the main proxy for crypto assets, may benefit from rising ETF flows anticipated for 2024. This trend could drive new capital into the market, giving Bitcoin an edge.

Solana also emerges as a top contender, with Lawant identifying it as a key player for “profit diversification.” Its position in the blockchain sector and its compelling narrative make it a likely destination for investors seeking growth opportunities beyond Bitcoin.

Recent data from Deribit shows optimism for Bitcoin among options traders, with Open Interest (OI) for call contracts at the end of November concentrated around $80,000. This concentration suggests traders are optimistic about Bitcoin's price trajectory, especially after election-related uncertainties settle.

Lawant also noted that Bitcoin and Solana are prominent in post-election discussions, while Ethereum (ETH) has been “notably absent,” indicating a possible shift in trader focus. This data points to the strong interest in Bitcoin and Solana as potential leaders in a post-election market landscape.

Despite the attention on crypto markets and the upcoming election, long-term confidence in Bitcoin remains high, according to Dan Tapiero, founder of 10T Holdings. Speaking at the Permissionless conference in Salt Lake City, Tapiero suggested that Bitcoin's future does not depend on the election’s outcome. He indicated Bitcoin could potentially reach $100,000, regardless of the winning candidate.

“I don’t think it really matters. Everything is going up now,”

Tapiero commented, underscoring his belief in Bitcoin’s upward trend beyond political events.

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