Analysis of Bitcoin's historical market trend in the past decade during the Spring Festival

Bitcoin Spring Festival Market: Ten-year data reveals the authenticity of the "curse" and the investment strategy of high winning rate

The "curse" that Bitcoin will fall during the Lunar New Year is circulating. The reason is said to be that Asian investors tend to convert crypto assets into fiat currency for consumption expenditure during festivals. However, is this really the case? This article will analyze the price trend of Bitcoin during the Spring Festival in the past decade, explore the authenticity of this "curse", and share investment strategies with high winning rates.

Review of the ten-year Bitcoin Spring Festival market: rising and falling

We have compiled the price fluctuation data of Bitcoin during the Spring Festival in the past ten years (2015-2024), and found that the rise and fall situation is not consistent. The so-called "curse" is not constant:

• 2024 (2/8~2/14): USD 44,349 to USD 52,043, up 17.3%
• 2023 (1/20~1/29): USD 21,071 to USD 23,960, up 13.7%
• 2022 (1/29~2/6): USD 37,716 to USD 42,656, up 13.1%
• 2021 (2/10~2/16): USD 46,420 to USD 50,689, up 9.2%
• 2020 (1/23~1/29): USD 8,682 to USD 9,449, up 8.8%
• 2019 (2/2~2/10): $3,462 to $3,685, up 6.4%
• 2018 (2/15~2/20): $9,449 to $11,786, up 24.7%
• 2017 (1/27~2/1): USD 918 to USD 986, up 7.4%
• 2016 (2/6~2/14): USD 374 to USD 404, up 8%
• 2015 (2/18~2/24): USD 234 to USD 238, up 1.7%

Potential factors affecting Bitcoin Spring Festival market

In addition to market sentiment and investor behavior, the following factors may also affect the Bitcoin Spring Festival market:

• Behavior of large institutional investors: For example, micro-strategy overweight behavior may have a positive impact on the market.
• Major events in the cryptocurrency market: For example, FTX's creditor repayment plan has been launched.
• Policy and Regulations Changes: For example, the U.S. government's regulatory policies on cryptocurrencies.

10x Research analyst's high winning strategy

10x Research analysts have proposed a high winning strategy for investing in Bitcoin during the Spring Festival: buy three days before the Spring Festival and sell the tenth day after the Spring Festival. According to its statistics, the average yield of this strategy was 11% between 2015 and 2023. In 2024, the strategy's yield is 17.88%.

Conclusion

Although the Bitcoin Spring Festival market has been rising and falling in the past decade and the term "curse" is not completely valid, there are many uncertainties in the market. Investors should carefully evaluate risks, never follow the trend blindly, and formulate reasonable investment strategies based on their own risk tolerance. This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

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