The strong interest rate cut in non-farm data slows down. Will Bitcoin rise or continue to fall?

Bitcoin and US non-farm employment data: In-depth interpretation

This article will explore the impact of US non-farm employment data on Bitcoin prices and analyze other factors that may cause Bitcoin price fluctuations.

• How does non-farm data affect Bitcoin?
• The correlation between non-agricultural data and interest rate policy: rising non-agricultural data usually leads to a decline in Bitcoin
• Deep reasons for Bitcoin oscillation
• After the non-agricultural data is released, is Bitcoin rising or falling?

After the release of US non-farm employment data, financial markets were fluctuating, and the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, was also significantly affected, exacerbating market volatility. At the beginning of 2025, the Bitcoin market performed sluggishly and the future trend was confusing.

Nonfarm Data: Key Economic Indicators affecting Bitcoin

Nonfarm Employment Data (Nonfarm Payrolls) is a key economic indicator released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics every month. It reflects the number of new jobs in the U.S. non-agricultural sector and is an important reference for measuring economic vitality. "Non-agricultural" refers to the exclusion of employment data including agriculture, government departments, non-profit organizations and household employment, because employment fluctuations in these areas are usually greatly affected by seasonal factors and it is difficult to accurately reflect the overall economic trend.

The impact of non-agricultural data is mainly reflected in:

• Economic health barometer:Growth of non-agricultural data usually means that the economy is active, consumer income increases, and corporate confidence increases.
• Basics for policy development: The Federal Reserve (Fed) often uses non-farm data to evaluate the employment market and economic situation to determine interest rate policies.
• Market sentiment vane: The data that significantly exceeds expectations may trigger a decline in risky assets, as it implies that the Fed may delay its interest rate cut plan.

For example, non-farm data in December showed that the number of new jobs reached 256,000, far higher than the market expectations of 160,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, indicating that the US economy is strong and the market's expectations for interest rate cuts have decreased accordingly.

Non-farm data and interest rate policy: Rising usually means bitcoin decline

The Federal Reserve's goal is to achieve full employment and stabilize inflation. Strong non-farm data means the job market is active and inflationary pressures may rise. In this case, the Fed will usually adopt more cautious policies, such as delaying interest rate cuts or hikes, to avoid overheating of the economy.

Enterprise policy expectations directly affect asset prices, including Bitcoin. After the release of non-farm data in December, the expectation of interest rate cuts in March fell from 41% to 28%, reflecting the weakening of market confidence in the Fed's interest rate cut.

Rising interest rates will increase the opportunity cost of holding non-income assets such as Bitcoin, and funds tend to flow into safe-haven assets such as US dollars or bonds, thereby suppressing the price of Bitcoin.

Deep reasons for Bitcoin oscillation: Beyond non-agricultural data

Bitcoin price has been fluctuating recently, hovering in the $91,200 to $102,750 range after hitting an all-time high of $108,364 in mid-December. This may be related to the following factors:

• Global liquidity tightens: Cointelegraph analysis shows that the global money supply (M2) has slowed since October 2023, limiting capital inflows into risky assets such as Bitcoin. Strong non-farm data and the possible delay in rate cuts in the Federal Reserve further exacerbated liquidity tightening.
• Big owners' holdings decreased: Santiment data shows that addresses holding 100 to 1,000 bitcoins ("shark") were the main force driving Bitcoin's rise from October to December, but since December 18, the number of buying of these addresses has plummeted and the market lacks further momentum to rise.
• Technical pressure: Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin's 50-day moving average ($97,573) has become a short-term resistance level, and $92,000 has become an important support level. A break below this support may trigger a further correction.

After non-agricultural data, the future trend of Bitcoin

The future trend of Bitcoin depends on the macroeconomic environment and market sentiment.

If future economic data shows that inflationary pressures are easing or non-farm data are weak, the Fed may reconsider its rate cut plan. This will inject funds into risky assets such as Bitcoin, boost market confidence and drive Bitcoin price to rise.

However, to break through the current fluctuation, Bitcoin must stand at the $102,750 resistance level before it can challenge the all-time high. But there is a lot of potential selling pressure above this price, which will be a barrier to breakthrough.

If the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, the market may re-evaluate future monetary policy, and the price of Bitcoin may be further under pressure, even falling below the key support level of $91,200.

In short, the future trend of Bitcoin depends on the clarity of the Federal Reserve's policy and the market's interpretation of macroeconomic data. The result of the bull-short game will determine whether Bitcoin will usher in the next wave of rise or further pullback.

The above is the detailed content of The strong interest rate cut in non-farm data slows down. Will Bitcoin rise or continue to fall?. For more information, please follow other related articles on the PHP Chinese website!