Will Bitcoin find the second visit? Standard Chartered Bank: If it loses support of $90,000, it may drop 10%

Bitcoin reversed rapidly after hitting a low of $89,000 on the 13th. The strong and recent trend has not yet shown obvious selling pressure and continues to stand above $97,000.

Since tonight is the time for the release of US CPI data, if inflation shows signs of rekindling, Bitcoin and US stocks may face sharp fluctuations again.

In this regard, Geoff Kendrick, global digital asset research director of Standard Chartered Bank, issued a report yesterday warning that if Bitcoin "clearly falls below $90,000", it may face further downside risks, because Bitcoin spot ETFs may experience large-scale closing of positions, resulting in a "convex risk" rising, which may lower Bitcoin to the low of $80,000: We believe that if Bitcoin clearly falls below $90,000, it may fall another 10% in the short term to the low of $80,000, and the prices of all other digital assets are likely to follow the decline. Once this wave of pullback is over, we will recommend accumulating long positions again.

ETF closing wave and macroeconomic pressure

Geoff Kendrick pointed out that since the US presidential election, the purchase of Bitcoin spot ETFs has only reached a profit and loss balance. The risk is that forced or panic selling will intensify the current macroeconomic-driven sell-off. US$90,000 is the key price of Bitcoin. If it clearly falls below, it may further trigger a 10% pullback for all digital assets.

He also emphasized the impact of the macroeconomic environment: Since Federal Reserve Chairman Powell turned the hawk on December 18, digital assets have been affected by a macroeconomic-driven sell-off wave, with Bitcoin falling to about $90,000 on January 13, and the risk is that the sell-off of digital assets may become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Geoff Kendrick further explained that since the US presidential election, Bitcoin spot ETFs and micro-strategy Bitcoin purchases have only reached a profit and loss balance. In the past few days, most Bitcoin sell-offs have been in a loss state, and the risk of market price adjustments is intensifying.

The target price at the end of 2025 reaches $200,000

However, despite short-term risks, Geoff Kendrick remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term potential, saying that in the next week, it may be wise to act prudently against digital assets, but as institutional funds flow back into the Trump administration, Standard Chartered Bank still sets its target price to $200,000 by the end of 2025.

After Trump's victory in November last year, Standard Chartered Bank issued a report stating that Trump's several cryptocurrency commitments, including expelling SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, including inclusion of Bitcoin in national strategic reserves, and building the United States into a Bitcoin superpower, will drive Bitcoin's rise, and it is optimistic that Bitcoin will exceed $200,000 by the end of this year.

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