Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Will BTC Break Above the 200-Day Simple Moving Average?

Bitcoin's current performance hints at a critical juncture as it faces challenges in breaking through key resistance levels.

Bitcoin's attempts to break through key resistance levels have been met with challenges, leaving the crypto behemoth at a critical juncture as its current performance is closely watched by market participants.

Despite struggling to pierce through the 200-day simple moving average set at $84,000 and the 4-hour chart displaying a balanced trading environment between buyers and sellers, hopes remain of surpassing the short-term overhead resistance to see the price rally towards $92,810 and $95,000, though downside support lingers around $80,000.

However, according to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, Bitcoin must close above $81,000 weekly to showcase resilience. Alternatively, any decline below $76,000 could trigger more significant selling, rendering this a pivotal juncture for the flagship cryptocurrency.

"The downward trend in the 20-day exponential moving average, currently at $86,188, suggests that seller strength still dominates. However, a positive divergence on the RSI indicates that selling pressure is diminishing.

"If Bitcoin falters from its present value, it could see a retreat to $80,000, paving the way for a further drop to $76,606.

"On the other hand, a rebound that pushes the price above the 20-day EMA could indicate that the market is rejecting the breakdown below the 200-day SMA. In such a scenario, potential uptrends could target the 50-day SMA at $93,033 and potentially reach the psychological milestone of $100,000, a significant resistance level."

This view contradicts that of 10x Research's senior portfolio manager, Markus Thielen, who expressed skepticism about a robust recovery in the cryptocurrency market, suggesting that the chart structure remains "rather indecisive."

"There isn't a clear bullish trend emerging at the moment," he noted, adding that the market appears to be struggling to sustain momentum in either direction.

"The year usually starts slowly, and we're observing this pattern in 2024 as well. Typically, we see more significant annual performance peaks in April and October," explained Timothy Peterson, a Bitcoin network economist.

"My forecasts suggest that there's a possibility of Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs before June."

Discussing Binance Coin (BNB), which began its recovery from $507 on March 11, the asset is now facing resistance at the 50-day SMA ($621). Observing the 20-day EMA of $595, this level is crucial—the price needs to remain above it to retain bullish momentum. A rebound may push the BNB/USDT pair toward $686.

However, a decline below this EMA would signal bearish dominance, setting the stage for potential drops to $550.

In the case of Toncoin, which surged to $3.64 from $2.35 earlier this month, market corrections could find footing at the 20-day EMA of $3.15. If successful, this buying pressure may propel the asset above its 50-day SMA, targeting $4 and later $5.

A breakdown below the 20-day EMA, however, would expose the asset to a decline towards $2.50.

As for Gate Token (GT), it shows signs of indecision with its symmetrical triangle formation, while the flattening of the 20-day EMA indicates hesitance among traders. A breakout above this triangle may indicate renewed bullish momentum, possibly driving the GT/USDT pair towards $24 and beyond.

Failure to maintain above the 20-day EMA could suggest a prolonged period of consolidation or further declines, setting the stage for a move towards the lower triangle support at $11.

Finally, Cosmos (ATOM) encountered selling pressure at the 50-day SMA ($5.15), presenting a point of contention. The recent breach above the 20-day EMA ($4.31) suggests that selling pressure is waning as bullish sentiment builds.

A successful close above this 50-day SMA could pave the way for a rally to $6.50. However, if the 20-day EMA support fails, the price could retrace back to $3.50.

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